Tag Archives: WMD

Precedent: North Korean Actions Spell Big Iranian Trouble For Israel (Analysis)

The North Koreans Don’t Appear All That Deterred

cheonan

The bow of the South Korean Warship Cheonan, split in half by a blatant North Korean act of war - Killing 46 Sailors.

Iranian apologists and those actively pushing for engagement at all costs have tabled the notion that accepting and deterring a nuclear Iran is a viable, workable option. This philosophy however is not embraced in Israel, and looking at recent events on the Korean Peninsula it is easy enough to see why.

Emboldened

One of the primary fears in Israel, beyond trying to live with an Islamic Fundamentalist Iranian regime possessing nuclear weapons that can nuke the Jewish State is balance of power & deterrence. The fear is that Iran backed by nuclear weapons will be emboldened, and that Israel’s ability to deal with Iranian terrorist proxies will be vastly diminished if not eliminated all together.

Those that speak of deterring Iran say that the Iranians are not crazy enough to unleash nuclear weapons, as doing so would bring Iranian destruction. Thus claiming “Iran is deterred” along the soviet MAD model, mission accomplished. However, the recent blatant act of aggression & war by North Korea sinking a South Korean warship & killing 46 sailors raises another all too deadly specter for Israel. The notion that rogue regimes & their proxies backed by nuclear weapons can initiate consequence free actions of a conventional nature, while the responsible democracy at the receiving end is powerless to respond or defend itself fearing a possible nuclear escalation.

Terrorists Run Amok

What is to stop Hezbollah, or Hamas backed by Iranian nuclear arms from initiating aggressive murderous action against Israel? How many rockets should Israel absorb launched at its civilian populace before responding? Further how much force can be used to respond if there is a possibility of escalation to all out war, and subsequently a possibility of nuclear exchange? The counter argument is that rogue elements like Iran will behave rationally. But was it rational for North Korea to risk nuclear war by suddenly for no reason sinking a South Korean warship? Equally, no actions by Islamist terrorist groups have historically been all that rational in the first place.

What of deterrence?

The only party that seems deterred is South Korea which is now relatively powerless to respond to this blatant act of war. This type of scenario repeated in Israel would make life in Israel nearly unlivable. Israel depends on the ability to react, strike & deter in self defense from criminal / terrorist actors on our borders. If this ability is compromised, our own deterrence evaporates, along with our ability to defend the State of Israel.

We could see never ending rocket or terrorist actions threatening every part of the country destroying commerce, and threatening civilian life; While our ability to react is severely compromised for fear of massive escalation, bringing in rogue nation states armed with lethal WMD & nuclear options.

Testing the limits

Hezbollah has already digested the North Korean action and seen the West nearly powerless to respond save for some harsh language. As a result, they are clearly not deterred but emboldened announcing they too in the future will seek to strike ships entering Israeli coastal water, irrespective of flag or civilian nature. This announcement comes before being backed by nuclear weapons like their friends in North Korea. That does not bode well for reading their possible future behavior backed by a nuclear armed Iran.

The only people seemingly deterred when rogue regimes and terrorist elements possess nuclear weapons will be the responsible democracies of the West, Israel included. Those that argue to the contrary & preach accommodation and engagement with irrational rogue actors need only look at the ‘rational North Koreans’ sinking warships out of the blue with nary a concern for consequence, for hints as to what the future may hold.

For Israel as well as Arab & Gulf states surrounded by terrorists & aggressive rogue neighbors, that modeled on curent reality possible future is wholly unacceptable.

Missile Threat: Pentagon Confirms Iranian ICBMs May Target America by 2015 (Plus – Shameless Self-Promotion!!)

Confirmation: Iranian Sejil-2 Ballistic Missile.

About two weeks ago I wrote that in-depth post above, it was a pretty good. Yesterday via Drudge I saw that the Pentagon confirmed much of what was written (as per the norm for the Analysis category at the Hashmonean I might add in glorious self-promotion lol). As such I’m updating with some of the latest information courtesy of Al-Reuters just below..

I’m also thanking and reminding my much appreciated regular readers who are slowly returning since my break that as in other cases, including the Lebanon War, the Iranian Nuclear Reactor strike in Syria etc, if you happened to have read analysis at the Hashmonean - you probably read it with a substantial jump on the rest of the planet! (Yes, it’s too bad I can’t do this for the stock market.. We’d all be rich!! ; )

Ahem, with that traffic inducing self aggrandizement out of the way
(*link to the Hashmonean*… *you are getting very sleepy*)
here are some up updates from the MSM.

Pentagon confirms:

  • Initial estimates on Ballistic Missile threat to America way off.
  • 2 Stage Solid Fuel Missiles a major advancement
  • Nuclear tipped ICBMs from Noko & Iran a distinct possibility soon enough

Money Quotes from the head of the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency..

“It really is an international effort going on out there to develop ballistic missile capability between these countries,” Army Lieutenant General Patrick O’Reilly told a forum on Capitol Hill.

They are sharing know-how on avionics, propulsion and materials, among other things, O’Reilly said. “We’ve seen it for years and it continues,” he said of such cooperation between North Korea and Iran, whose Shahab missiles are widely reported to be based on North Korean designs.

Their ability to fire missiles with a stable ignition and launch a second stage represents “a significant step forward” for both of them.. Asked which country was further ahead in missile development, he said it could be described as a “horse race” with no clear leader. [...]

The Israeli view outlined in the article by Israel’s former head of Missile Defense also jives with what I’ve written, that the Iranian program has catapulted ahead alarmingly. In my post I highlighted that these rapid advancements will challenge existing missile shields and looked at the advantages of solid fuel rockets now within Iranian capabilities..

Solid-propellant missiles offer many advantages over those with liquid fuel. They are easier to store, harder to detect and may be launched without a fueling process readily observable by spy satellites.

Iran’s use of solid-fuel missiles demonstrated “a quantum leap in capabilities” over those shown by North Korea, Uzi Rubin, the former head of Israel’s Missile Defense Organization, told Reuters in an interview. “Basically, this is big-power league,” he said, adding that the jury was still out, as far he was concerned, on whether the two had integrated their ballistic missile programs. [...]

Lastly, more ugliness and part of the main event of my post 2 weeks ago – Confirmation of the nuclear threat to America & the World from The U.S. Air Force’s National Air and Space Intelligence Center:

“Iran has ambitious ballistic missile and space launch development programs and, with sufficient foreign assistance, Iran could develop and test an ICBM capable of reaching the United States by 2015,”

The report, made available by the Federation of American Scientists, said North Korea was continuing work on its Taepodong 2 “that could reach the United States with a nuclear payload” if developed as an intercontinental ballistic missile. [...]

Nothing to see here, move along.

Iran is voting today on a new puppet President, the White House is quiet but leftists who salivate over making buddy buddy with the Mullahs are playing up the notion of the ‘big reformer’ candidate’s chances and how Obama’s outreach is making huge strides. Of course this reformer is nothing of the sort and these nuclear & ballistic programs are full steam ahead regardless of who wins.

More endearing self-promotion ahead..

The original post has more analysis, images & video as well if you are interested. It will undoubtedly show up in the auto related links generated just below these words when I hit the publish button.

Send A Warning: Bust Bushehr’s Dome Now

Striking Iran requires hitting 3 separate programs – No one said it needs to be done in one blow

I propose what most would consider sheer insanity, a limited strike on Iran – Not to destroy Iran’s programs but rather to illuminate the other two brightly. We are looking at three tracks:

  1. The open track which consists of the Plutonium powered Bushehr reactor which is Russian built, Russian fueled, and ostensibly monitored by the IAEA with dubious effectiveness.
     
  2. The Uranium track which is partially hidden and consists of being ‘ideally’ monitored by the IAEA though they are not carrying out proper verification at all, this consists of widely reported Natanz and the Arak heavy water plant.
     
  3. A hidden track which consists of both Plutonium & Uranium components, Plutonium in the form of Noko assisted work in Syria on a hidden reactor and possibly more, and what everyone assumes is more hidden work on further Uranium enrichment via spinning centrifuges in underground sites spread across Iran.

A large, all encompassing strike would entail a few days of work. It would be in effect a limited war. I openly support this if it is necessary personally, and this is the big strike the media, the planet, etc often speak of. Surprise would be handy indeed to effectuate this effort as would copious ample amounts of intelligence, planning and skill. The easiest component of that strike is Bushehr, the big dome which has been under construction since the time of the Shah and is now being openly fueled by Russia with US grudging approval and is now near completion.

Send a Message

Israel should hit Bushehr, now while the weather is optimal, while the reactor is still cold, while the Russians are playing brinkmanship. Why on earth would I propose this insanity which would not cover the other two more dangerous tracks? For a number of reasons..

  • It would send a clear message to Iran and more importantly the people of Iran that Israel means business.
  • It would put Russia in an uncomfortable position, defy the world & side with Iran, or enter the world community.
  • It would if successful boost the diplomatic options for the other tracks by ten fold.
  • It could spark a reaction by Iran which opens the way to flattening the rest of their programs openly by a coalition.
  • It would light up the entire Iranian air defense network, provide a cornucopia of intel on those defense and Iranian forces.
  • It would call the Iranian bluff and show the relative ineffectiveness of Iran’s military ability compared to their much larger boasts.
  • It would be a dry run with serious training and with appreciable results for a larger limited war on Iran’s programs.
  • It would ungel Israel’s frozen military & political system which is seized up currently.
  • It would provide Olmert the coup de grace he seeks without requiring dangerous concessions he is envisioning.
  • It would place the Syrians squarely back in their box or pull them from Iran depending on Assad’s TRUE intentions.
  • It would put massive pressure on Hezbollah, perhaps break the ever growing / creep and hold on Lebanon.
  • It could put Ahmadinejad’s upcoming re-election in jeopardy, a serious blow to Iran’s progress as he is the big proponent.
  • It could deter Russia & Iran from constructing up to 5 more reactors at Bushehr as is planned and limit the out of control Russian hunger for profiting in the billions off Iran’s illicit desires.
  • It would be a massive PR blow to Iran, and provide silent begrudging respect to Israel across the region and world.
  • If planned well, the resulting activity right after captured by satellite would point out the bulk of Iran’s secret activities to Israel & the US, would also illuminate ballistic missile locations, illuminate the shore to sea Iranian missiles threatening US Naval assets.
  • Corner Iran with their oil cutoff boasts, perhaps spur the much needed but never coming blockade to avoid full scale war.

In short, a big bright light would shine brightly on the fungus and darkly stored Iranian illicit activities. In one fell swoop cards would be played with Israel and the US still holding aces. Iran may retaliate but then again the threat is always hovering that Iran will act either by itself or by directive to Hezbollah, a massive retaliation would play against Iran not for it in such a limited strike with little damage collaterally. We already live with this threat daily and it is often acted out through terrorism.

The Russian constructed Bushehr Reactor is a 'Prime Target' for a limited strike

The Russian constructed Bushehr Reactor is a prime target

Give diplomacy & reality a shot in the arm with a limited dose of force

If Israel and the world is truly serious about diplomacy which has totally stalled, this is the impetus to get it going before a full war breaks out, a small glimpse at the results of diplomacy’s failure. Highly dangerous, but not nearly as dangerous as an untamed nuclear Iran which is exactly where things are heading. I’d wager Iran’s retaliation would be negligible, they are also playing brinkmanship – It is high time someone called them out. A limited strike would be a classic Israeli move and seize the initiative which until now is all Iran’s. We already gambled in Syria and won, time to double down.