Tag Archives: Kadima

ISRAELI ELECTIONS: Kadima Fails to ‘coalesce’

Power to the People

Kadima under Livni is trying to spin their failure to put together a viable coalition majority, citing an end to ‘political extortion’. In some ways they are right. Kadima is referring to the billions of shekels worth of spending parties requested in order to play ball. But truthfully, the price to pay for the public was even before the billions too high.

The real extortion has been ongoing – A government that has been plagued by;

  • failed strategies
  • failed military achievements
  • massive corruption

While at the same time veering far from its mandated platform, has been scheming along the political strata at the public’s expense for over a year. A deposed but still leading in a transitional government PM, a new Kadima party leader who failed to inspire even an internal party win, wild secret and not so secret negotations coalition wise and diplomatically / internationally, along with nary a statement or political platform, or plan submitted to the public. This steam engine has lacked an engineer for a while now.

In the mean time, serious security matters and state affairs all seemingly have gone on unattended, resulting in deeply negative public opinion. In short, Livni’s failure has saved us from continued totally un-mandated, chaos.

Election roll out

One of two scenarios can play out. President Peres can now afford 28 days for another candidate to try and form a coalition, this is unlikely but that candidate would be leader of the opposition Bibi. Failing that elections would take place likely in February. The Knesset parties can also come to agreement and set an election date themselves to advance the process. Until then, Olmert controls the transitional govt. Should he be indicted in the interim theoretically Livni would head the transitional government. The absurdity of that statement says it all.

Vying with each other for votes
THE LEFT

Livni – Kadima
Ehud Barak – Labor

THE RIGHT

Netanyahu – Likud
Eli Yshai – Shas
Lieberman – Israel Beitenu

The Smaller Parties:
Meretz, UTJ, Pensioners, NRP, 3 Arab Parties.

Mrs Clean: Livni goes back on her word; Looks to form Arab based leftist Government coalition (Update II)

Unelected ‘leader’ needs to face the music, er.. electorate

Now into the 2 week extension for coalition building after having burned up the normal month long allocation with no result, the lady elected by less than 1% of the nation’s vote is getting desperate.

Musical Chairs..

The EmperorFirst she claimed she was unprepared to serve under Olmert who no longer had a mandate, yet she never resigned. Then she let it be known if she was not chosen the new Kadima head, she was leaving the party. Then she claimed she wanted to lead a center based government under her leadership based on Olmert’s coalition, despite being unelected. Later she claimed she was prepared to call elections, yet weeks later applied for coalition extensions instead.

Getting dizzy yet?

Then she swung radically left and invited Meretz to join. Afterwards she claimed what she really wanted was a national emergency government with the Likud because that was the ‘responsible’ thing to do. Later she stated it was not Meretz but UTJ & Shas who were her obvious natural partners, before of course telling Labor leader Barak he was the ‘supreme’ deputy Prime Minister under her little junta.

Now, after offering up billions of shekels to buy the leadership seat of Israel only to be as of yet spurned, she’s prepared to form an absurd narrow government of 60 MKs based on the radical left Meretz platform and requiring Arab party MKs to keep her afloat.. There’s only one thing missing from this little dictatorship she is looking to form, a mandate and some actual votes.

Power Trip

Not only has Mrs. Clean now waffled on every statement she has ever made, now she’s selling out the entire Kadima center party concept to feed her unabashed unelected ambitions wholesale, putting the power center in the hands of the radical left and traditional anti Zionist Israel haters. Shas, Kadima members themselves, the Pensioners, pretty much everyone save Livni thinks this is somewhat insane. Not only that but it breaks the only deal she managed to sign with Labor, where she pledged to build a solid 2 year proof government or go to elections.

As six Kadima MKs, headed by Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz, said they would not support a narrow government if one were brought to the Knesset for approval next week, Kadima leader and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni threatened Wednesday to hold general elections. [...]

Livni told Mofaz that she preferred a wide government, but that if there were parties – such as Shas and UTJ – that chose not to join a government under her leadership, she would consider forming a narrow one. Livni told Mofaz that all options were still valid, including going to general elections.

Mofaz told Livni that he would like to help form a wide government. Mofaz has gathered five other Kadima MKs who support his position that a narrow government with Labor and Meretz would be too left-wing and would therefore be subject to political extortion and concessions in negotiations with the Palestinians, and later on with the Syrians [...]

A 60 seat skin of your teeth anti Zionist coalition is not what you’d call a solid governing body able to last 2 weeks let alone 2 years in Israel’s political system. Nor would it have anything even resembling a shred of mandate with HUGE issues looming large for Israel including existential threats, unrevealed peace plans, etc. Less than a week later she has already balked on her commitments to Barak, if this is the clean Leader Livni it bodes for disaster.

It seems there is no red line Livni isn’t willing to cross in her quest. Isn’t it time we got real elected leadership, a real mandate by vote not some shady word breaking back room deals? The notion that this woman who received less than 45% of her own party’s vote, less than 25,000 votes in ALL of Israel can possibly be mandated to do anything save tie her own shoes is a real mockery. Stop threatening us endlessly that you will call elections Livni, and call the elections. Please sh*t or get off the pot, we need leadership in this country and we need it now.

At least one thing has become crystal clear and undeniable to all, Livni is a leftist. Light years away from the tough right wing ‘Ariel Sharon heir’ she claimed to be. It seems Mrs. Clean hasn’t been all that honest with us, feel free to choose when and where for yourself as it is a multiple choice question with numerous right answers.

UPDATE: Power Queen plays ‘Who wants to be a billionaire?’

‘Mrs. Clean’ offers Shas 1 Billion Shekels to secure her govt.. First it was 400 million, then 800 million, now a full Billion in 24 hours and the day is not over yet.. Add this to the 1.5 billion promised to Labor, and hundreds million more for Meretz, Pensioners and anyone else who can dig into the Livni leadership trough.. Global Recession? Fiscal conservative, no amount of taxpayer dollars is too much it seems to burn, for what? Did I get a vote to spend billions on this sham, no.. Did you?

UPDATE II: Now it’s back to elections if no coalition deal is done by Sunday
So this would be the hardball I take it? Frankly I injured my neck in whiplash trying to keep track of these machinations all over the map. The Pensioners have pulled out of talks entirely apparently today, because they now also want a few hundred million to a billion sheks and Livni has stated she doesn’t want to act ‘irresponsibly’..

“The moment of reckoning has arrived,” Livni said at a Kadima faction meeting, Wednesday. “Decisions need to be made by Sunday and then we will know whether there will be a coalition or elections. Negotiations have not been exhausted to their fullest, but time is not on our side,” she added.

The Kadima leader insisted that she would not agree to break the budget and that she would not restore child welfare payments to their former levels. In the closed session, the Kadima leader said she preferred a government that was as broad as possible, but admitted that it was not yet clear if she would even get a 61-MK majority, Israel Radio reported. [...]

According to her enamored media, Kadima & Livni herself, she should be all set for a 20% electoral landslide crushing the Likud, so why the reticence to go to the electorate? Might it have something to do with the fact that in reality she is going to get shellacked?

Personally, I maintained she would have difficulty beating Mofaz, that’s how it rolled. I also made my call she would not be able to build a coalition which was pretty ballsy seeing as one already existed - I’m sticking to my guns.. We’ll see what goes on from now till Sunday. If she opts for this 61 Meretz Arab MK coalition I will openly revolt like the Hashmoneans against the Seleucids.

Times Up: Kadima needs to request 2 week coalition extension

Slow going

Livni’s associates are blaming holidays for delays, but wherever the blame lies the 1 month coalition constructing period allocated by law expires today. Having been elected by 400 some votes in the Kadima primary, Livni was supposed to have put together her ruling coalition by this date and applied formally to institute her government.

Alas, so far only Labor has agreed in talks formally to participate, and there are problems internally within Labor over the agreement. I blasted Barak last week over what I perceive as profound weakness and prominent members of the party agree, which will pose a small challenge in ratification. Kadima & Shas meanwhile are in talks to come to terms over billions more shekels, upon which the coalition talks still hinge.

Livni is a big spender

The agreements so far hammered out by Kadima with Labor are estimated to cost the state in excess of 1.5 billion new shekels worth of unallocated spending with a cool billion or two more still coming via Shas. It has been an expensive few weeks, now Livni will apply for her last 2 weeks allowed by extension in order to try and spend more to secure her un-elected government.

Some hints as to the direction of Livni’s possible government are already manifesting, while the Palestinian, Lebanese, Syrian & Iranian tracks are bouncing all over the map with varying parties trying to secure their interests in the chaos. On the question of Lebanon & Hezbullah tying in Syria the word from Livni so far is:

  • Capitulation on the UN resolutions she herself negotiated.
  • Capitulation on borders already affirmed by the UN as legitimate
  • Capitulation by Israel regarding security overflights..

All in return for what Livni’s associates are calling a non-aggression pact, which will prove to be worthless clearly as it will not be recognized by Hezbullah who now control south Lebanon & beyond.

In other words, Livni’s government will be vying with Olmert’s previous government for the honors of ‘worst leadership period in the history of the State of Israel’ and she hasn’t even cemented her coalition yet.

Breaking bread with Livni: The Coalition is hitting early bumps

Swinging left to Meretz was a very BAD idea..

Livni’s 1st political move was a classic mistake. Instead of immediately leaning right to secure goodwill within Kadima and without, where she lacks it most and where the country is also leaning most, she went left to the Meretz no man’s land of political oblivion.

Of course the reasoning is simple enough, they are going gaga for Livni on the far left. The glowing media and support is akin to a warm embrace, comfort food for a very weak slim win. Further, the ideological platform she is pushing in negotiations falls squarely in the Meretz camp. Thing is she accomplishes more than just alienating the right in a move like that, she also alienates the left, or in this case Labor party’s leader.

Struck by lightning (Barak)

Barak himself as Prime Minister already flirted with the Meretz platform 10 years ago, it cost him his job. Why on earth Livni thought he may enjoy flirting with that platform openly again, especially in light of his already low opinion of her - all in order to secure her the PM job is beyond me?

Being 1st out of the gate to reinforce the common view that she has sacrificed every principle of her Likud roots, and now even Kadima’s own charter is not a genius play. The notion that this is Sharon’s heir politically we are seeing is as I stated divine comedy. The empress has no clothes so far. Judging by the media roundup below, no one is as of yet tossing her any either. If anything, there’s a concerted effort to challenge the legality of her win within Kadima forming now, and a possible flirt between Labor & Likud on a power sharing agreement. Anyone get the feeling Livni wants to share power and rotate the big PM chair? Me neither.

Livni is not the only one who can form a govt

She is dominating the media, but President Peres can be approached by other factions to form a govt. Peres & Olmert are now racing to get things squared away, Peres may even delay his trip to the USA for the UN general assembly to keep the paltry Livni momentum going. The last thing he wants is to come back in a week or so and be presented with a government option that does not even involve Livni, a national emergency government of the left & the right which leaves out the so called center party and Livni entirely..

Look at this math..

Labor 19, Likud 12, Israel Our Home 11, Shas 12 = 54
NRP 9, UTJ 6, Pensioners 6.

Either of those last three added is enough to secure a slim majority without Kadima, Meretz or elections, and the pensioners and UTJ are easy enough addons. With all the freed up Kadima portfolios it is darn right near a jamboree where everyone gets to keep their corrupt cozy seats, and even get a few juicy new ministries. It is a Kadima nightmare scenario..

Even Assad has a better opinion of Livni than Barak (Haaretz)
Comptroller mulls corruption probe of Kadima primary
(Jpost on the race rift exploding)
Barak – ‘Israel needs nat’l emergency gov’t’
(Jpost on a Labor Likud power sharing agreement)
Olmert: I have decided to resign as prime minister of Israel
(Jpost, everyone assumes Peres will appoint Livni)
Labor sources: Barak seeks early general elections (Haaretz)
Mofaz supporter calls for recount of Kadima primary (Haaretz)
Livni says Kadima will continue to lead Israel (Ynet)

Hitting the brakes

The last link shows Livni is already backtracking to ‘National Unity Government’ talk, meaning that her plans to maintain the current coalition seem stalled entirely, she assumed she could just patch together Olmert’s coalition and tack on Meretz for more seats, but you know what they say about the old adage assume? When you ASSUME you are ‘Making an ASS out of U and ME’.

She better not assume she is guaranteed to be the party leader being offered the shot at forming a govt either, as by displaying further hubris she may be in for a surprise. She also assumed she would landslide the primary, and she assumes she will landslide a general election too..

How many times in one week can you ‘make an ass of yourself’ is the real question?

Meretz Appeal: Livni’s Kadima is in big trouble

Loss of Mofaz may signal serious blow on a number of levels

Kadima was formed as a center party, but since Olmert’s takeover just after Kadima’s inception, the party has marched steadily left towards Labor & Meretz positions. Olmert’s intent to ram through concessions and talks with traditional enemies like Syria despite near zero public approval, and Livni’s personal stewardship of Palestinian track talks have only cemented the drift.

Half & Half

What gave Kadima unique strength and allowed it to lean left so dangerously was its makeup. Formed with former Labor & Likud MKs, the labor half gave ‘moderation’ legitimacy while the Likud half gave ‘security’ legitimacy. Top of the list in the hawk department was Shaul Mofaz. His departure leaves Livni in a lurch on a number of levels.

He takes with him a massive chunk of the security legitimacy, Livni has zero security knowledge, zero military understanding, and is seen rightly so as a dove. Kadima voters who value old Likud harder lines (we are speaking of half the party) are not necessarily overjoyed or even voting with Kadima going forward now that the Labor / Left wing of the party, is in command. I myself was a Kadima supporter under Sharon, my vote is long gone back to the Likud.

Worse, Mofaz is a hero of the Sephardi component. Being Iranian and hailing from the Likud he carries with him a strong contingent of Mizrahi eastern Jewish support within Israel, and they are livid – citing old Ashkenazi racism within Kadima as a factor in his some 400 vote loss which by all accounts, looked contrived and staged for Livni.

Meretz

The elation of the Meretz party with Livni is further damaging, NO ONE in Israel of political stripe wants to be associated with the Meretz platform, which is seen as near treasonous these days in the holy land by a great majority of voters. Worse, Meretz represents the Liberal Elite for many, the worst stereotypes of old Ashkenazi racism and power. These things are anathema to Mizrahi Jews who are sizable with heavy voting power.

Livni dropping hints that she may opt to form a coalition with Meretz, Labor & the Arab parties, thus giving her a razor thin 60 or 61 seat majority government (in order in reality to pressure the Mizrahi Jewish based Shas party) is like a race lightning bolt striking Kadima. Combined with the loss of Mofaz (he is shrewd) Livni’s pleas for unity seem like whimpers compared to the rumbling ‘race thunder’ now being loudly heard.

Queen Livni may have to bow

She does not like Mofaz personally, nor does she have solid relations with Mizrahi / eastern Jewry in Israel. This is not an enviable position because on either side..

  • Whether it is winning Mizrahi support within Kadima to keep the party relevant seat wise
  • Or winning Mizrahi Shas support outside Kadima for coalition purposes

The new ‘Meretz Ashkenazi Queen’ is without them ruling over a very small, even tiny kingdom. Come coalition time, or election time something needs to happen here or the Livni reign will be a short one indeed, worth perhaps 8-10 seats. If this rift widens we may even see Kadima & Labor merge. That may sound insane because Barak & Livni’s relationship is also bordering on blows – But, in the realm of Israeli politics gaining seat numbers is King, and the King trumps even the Queen.

GoldenGirl Livni’s Disaster: 1 Point Win Mocks Media; Kadima; Public (Updated Below)

No Credibility, No Mandate, No Sweeping Adoration.

The tally is in and Livni has won by a mere 431 votes, instead of 49% to 37% as projected by every single outlet of big media in Israel last night, Livni’s lead is actually 1 measly percentage point. 43.1 to 42% - Shocking. It smells so corrupted I feel the need to shower. Worse, there were ‘voting irregularities’ last night in the arab sector (as usual) pushing Livni which may have clinched it for her – on top of her poll closing shenanigans.

A trend is developing, big media is pumping agenda driven polls in election after election to push their own horse. We saw it with Olmert, we saw it with Livni, and now we saw it even in the exit polls which declared Livni the winner before voting even ceased, studios closed down for the night, reporters went home and they drove Mofaz home as well in disappointment – but that wasn’t the story it seems.

Shocking Win

These results combined with the blatant manipulation by media, the blatant manipulation by Kadima to force polls open even longer at the last minute for their Princess Livni is a travesty and a mockery. Forget the fact that Israel’s new PM is decided by less than 20,000 people / votes – Now it is not even decided by those 20,000 it seems out of our 7 Million, it is decided by someone else entirely like some third world country, a true Banana Republic.

Livni has no mandate that much is clear. She is not the adoring savior shoved down our throats by our media with fictitious massive 20% victories over her rivals, and 20% electoral projected landslides in national elections, she will not sweep anything in national elections as I posted previously and that is precisely why we will be denied them. She has a zero success rate and that was proven again last night beyond her Foreign Ministerial failures.

Enough with this farce

Where does Kadima go from here? Our PM refuses to vacate, his replacement is coronated like a queen, negotiations & concessions steam forward with no mandate, now not once but a second time it seems, state affairs are not dealt with.. We are ruled it seems like a brothel – By a bunch of greedy corrupt prostitutes and their media pimps. Now Shas & Labor have seemingly even dropped their pre-requisites for remaining in the coalition, meaning nothing has changed at all.

Now that it is proven Livni is far from a winner the left’s GoldenGirl clearly cannot deliver, and the last thing that can be allowed is elections to drive this failure reality home.

Update: Lonely Planet

I’m feeling kinda gothca’d, which is why I seem to be the only person beefing about this, the media in Israel is seemingly skipping right over the whole debacle above. Contrast this to the Bush Kerry results 4 years ago where similar exits told a similar story and there was shock afterward, there was quite a bit of talk in the media about jumping the gun. Following some Clinton miscalls in this US election cycle, media again in the US looked at the need to restrain themselves..

Where are the opinion pieces in Israel with similar tones? The election was called across the board and was overshot by about 10% – a full 1/4 of the vote, it certainly affected the vote itself as well. If I find some dissent I will link it. Further, if I was feeling like a bastard I would contrast YNET political reporting last night which was gloating & filled with exhilaration, with the muted fare available today..

Link Update:
Thank Goodness SD does the phenomenal groundwork here
, I thought I might be losing my mind. The Nissenbaum shot and the WP quotes are instant classics.

div

UPDATE Sep 19: Mofaz’s Exit from Politics

Shaul is taking a political breatherMofaz has dropped a shocker, his exit from politics. Many are carrying on with the same scorn he received in the campaign, calling him sore loser etc. But I see it differently, he was indeed robbed, a victim of racism and ugly class rivalries in Israel amongst other things, and if he stays he benefits not himself so much, as Livni who’s party and who’s own experience looks paltry without him..

The Jerusalem Post analyzes the situation today, they’ve clearly been reading some high quality material ; )

[...] The Kadima establishment, they lamented on his behalf, had set him up to fail. Livni was the golden girl, to be crowned come what may. After decades of military and public service, he had been misrepresented throughout the campaign as a murky political operator and Likud hawk, and his popularity relentlessly undermined by skewed and baseless polls.

On primary day itself, when he still had a good chance of victory, the Mofaz camp further complained Thursday night, he was quashed by a combination of disqualified ballots, extended voting hours and the reprehensible broadcast of exit polls falsely showing an overwhelming Livni victory – an appalling breach of democratic norms that could only have persuaded those Mofaz supporters still waiting to cast their ballots that they were wasting their time and should head home. [...]

Phew, it is not such a lonely planet after all..

Big thanks for making Kadima Primary day the Hashmonean’s biggest traffic day in a while. I also saw that Jameel had an excellent post on the polling fracas, nice one – Both the Jpost full article and the Muqata look at polling are worthy reads.