Tag Archives: Israel Beitenu

Tea Leaves: 11 Weeks Left On My Latest Kadima Predictions of Imminent Disaster


Last Friday, in my domestic analysis of Bibi’s first 100 days I made a prediction regarding Likud strategy & Kadima. You can read the whole post if it is of interest on the hows & whys, but I chased it with bold statements like these..

[...] Bibi is a masterful political operator. He has pulled the rug out from under Livni, and if Mofaz is smart he will make his move to push for coalition. If Netanyahu is equally smart and he is, I expect it in the next 10-12 weeks as posted above.

Resistance is futile..

Should Kadima resist.. We may see it fracture with Mofaz leaving. The challenge for Bibi is mustering some portfolios for the senior defense Kadima man. The best case scenario for Netanyahu is such a fracture, for now he is surely content to allow Livni to wallow in obscurity otherwise, as the coalition play would be a pressure gambit only. Should he succeed in splitting Kadima (no small feat), the ground is clear for an opposition-less path for years ahead & a Likud power reign of the right.

In order to keep myself entertained on the blog I do this fairly often, I’m pretty good at it too. Alas, it’s more finely honed polling trolling and a fairly religiously pursued tap on Israel’s political pulse than magic sadly.. Else I’d be a lot richer in general. Nonetheless, it has only been 6 days – but my seed is starting to sprout despite the oppressive Tel Aviv heat. In today’s YNET, senior Likud strategists confirm my thinking on what comes next..

PM’s associates: Next target – dismantling Kadima (Somfalvi)

In the wake of the State Budget’s approval Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s close associates are setting their sights on the next target: Facilitating a split within the ranks of their main rival, Kadima.

The PM’s associates told Ynet that the so-called “Shaul Mofaz Bill,” which would allow 25% of the members of one Knesset faction to split and join another, is meant to prompt a Kadima split. “Should the Mofaz bill be passed, it will mark a significant strategic victory,” a senior official in Netanyahu’s office said.

The PM’s associates are claiming that at this time already, seven Kadima Knesset members will agree to leave their party and join Netanyahu’s coalition, even if Mofaz himself decides to shun the move for the time being. The prime minister’s associates said that in the near future they will be exerting intense pressure in a bid to approve the Mofaz Bill, in an effort to undermine the opposition. [...]

Approach to Danger

Livni, you are approaching the danger zone. It is no wonder that all of a sudden Livni’s tune is changing. Now we hear gems along the lines of ‘if Israel Beitenu leaves the coalition due to possible investigations of party head Avigdor Lieberman, Kadima would have no problem joining the coalition’.. More comedy gold.

Not looking good for Livni

Not looking good for Livni

Please don’t tell anyone that this ‘supposed aversion’ to Lieberman’s party is obviously the reason Livni spent the bulk of her own coalition efforts courting him, including such an invitation in her Victory Speech! to the nation on election night.

Oy! It’s not nice to laugh at your former party’s misfortunes, but I can’t help it. For a year+ I was posting post after post on Livni’s political fortunes, her handlers tall tales, and the fact that Bibi would eat her for breakfast. So far in my latest game of pick the political future I have scored big, with the Kadima implosion strategy now tabled as the next target for the Likud. We shall see if 11 weeks is enough time for me to sink a double bogey.. and watch Kadima split open like a melon.

Good Stuff..

Gil Hoffman at JPOST in a great article about Israel Beitenu’s legal woes and the possible fallout, mentions Mofaz as a dark horse for the Foreign Ministry should Avigdor Lieberman resign. But there’s the rub. Not enough English for Shaul in my opinion to make the position truly effective. What or how does Bibi shuffle the deck to make a tantalizing spot open for Mofaz to entice a full bail & bring a 1/3 of Kadima with him? The way the Kadima party& Livni treated him in the primary, it is difficult but doable as he & Livni seriously dislike each other. Will Mofaz try to oust Livni and take the party? Will he move to Israel Beitenu or more likely Likud?

No matter what there are fun times ahead for us Tea Leave readers everywhere.

Right On: Danny Ayalon Joins Israel Beitenu

Another All-Star pickup for the Knesset lists, again on the right

Last week it was Uzi Dayan joining the Likud, this week another huge name. Former long serving Ambassador to the United States and well known Israel advocate Danny Ayalon has joined Israel Beitenu (Israel our Home) the secular right ring party led by firebrand Avidgor Lieberman.

YNET [...]
Former Ambassador Ayalon was the political advisor of three prime ministers – Benjamin Netanyahu, Ehud Barak and Ariel Sharon. Since the conclusion of his tenure in Washington, he has served as chairman of the Nefesh B’Nefesh organization and has engaged in international consulting along with Attorney Dov Weisglass, Sharon’s associate.

We are facing a serious political crisis, and this is why I have decided to join politics,” Ayalon told Yedioth Ahronoth on Thursday. “My connection with Ivet (Lieberman) and Yisrael Beiteinu is very clear. I read Yisrael Beiteinu’s platform and realized that this was my natural home.”

Ayalon added that he is a great believer in the ideology of the Yisrael Beiteinu movement. “I feel a connection to their platform, mainly in terms of changing the government system, civil marriage and exchanging territories,” he said. “The issue of exchanging territories, for example, should have been put on the table a long time ago. If I were an Israeli-Palestinian-Arab I would want to join a Palestinian state. I wonder why this has not been proposed by Israel’s Arabs.” [...]

Danny AyalonNot only is Ayalon by far the highest profile new member for Israel Beitenu next to its leader, but he brings with him some hefty international openings / avenues for the party. Israel Beitenu has enjoyed for the most part international support from dual citizens and patriots of the former soviet mold being a mostly Russian party. The addition of a big pick can open news doors, both to the Israeli electorate and the all important North American market.

Ayalon was well regarded by American Jews in Washington, strong ties to AIPAC followed by a year long stint with Nefesh Benefesh the primarily orthodox American aliyah organization will certainly help Israel Beitenu get on the political map in a way denied the party until now, this will end up taking some support from the Likud and moving it perhaps another notch right. Ayalon is an effective spokesman and he can drum up support and even money in ways Avigdor cannot, who is less well known and less well regarded outside Israel. 

Playing Poker this weekend someone at the table mentioned voting Israel Our Home in the next round, seemingly a meaningless mention but it is noteworthy because it surfaced in an all sabra group and I am by far the most right of the players and a Likud voter.. Frustration with our Arab partners surfacing in even unlikely places.