Tag Archives: Iran

Squeeze Play: Iran Tries the ‘Old Israel Switcheroo’ with America

Thanks.. But No Thanks

Plenty of action on the rogue regime front this week, with Iran delivering what it calls a ‘new proposal’ to the p5+1 for “Negotiations”. There are a number of interesting aspects to this proposal.

Chiefly among them is the fact that Iran has flatly refused to discuss or cease its nuclear program, or table uranium enrichment issues which constitutes the number one demand from the West.

Clearly, this is a stalling & delay tactic. But the Iranians in charge over there in Iranistan are a clever bunch. They’ve zeroed in specifically on comments made by the Obama administration, and used them to their own advantage in order to build on some unlikely allies – The hard left in the US and even within Obama’s own administration. The proposal has been leaked and within we can glean some interesting insight into Iran’s squeeze play..

The proposal, submitted by Teheran on Wednesday to representatives of the P5+1 group of nations – - the US, Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia – says Iran is prepared to enter into dialog and negotiation in order to lay the ground for lasting peace. It lists a wide range of issues for discussion, including nuclear disarmament, trade and investment and protecting human dignity.

Although the proposal makes no mention of Israel, it calls for “joint efforts and interactions to help the people of Palestine draw up a comprehensive, democratic and equitable plan in order to help the people of Palestine to achieve all-embracing peace, lasting security and to secure their fundamental rights.”

It also calls for “promoting the universality of the Non-Proliferation Treaty,” and “putting into action real and fundamental programs toward complete disarmament and preventing the development and proliferation of nuclear chemical and microbial weapons.” [...]

Iran seizes on issues publicly declared by Obama as priorities, cynically portends to be champions of these issues while attempting to replace itself in the hot seat with Israel. The complete disarmament mentioned is in regards to ALL nuclear weapons on the planet, a stated (somewhat absurd) pet project of President Obama himself, and a clear call to focus on Israel’s own nuclear capabilities. The innocent Iranian regime playing international moral leader.

Even more classic, this is exactly what apologists for the Iranian regime want to hear. Iran is clearly banking on those same apologists to be champions in their delay tactics. Lacking any credibility internationally whatsoever of late, the hard left & those that champion engagement with no real end game are Iran’s only outlet. So Iran lays it on mighty thick just for them, with ample bait to the softies in the Obama administration to boot!

Apparently in some quarters it is already working..

According to the document, “The Islamic Republic of Iran believes that within the framework of principles of justice, democracy and multilateralism, a wide range of security, political, economic and cultural issues at regional and global levels could be included in these negotiations with a view of fostering constructive cooperation for advancement of nations and promotion of peace and stability in the region and the world.”

The US and Russia were at odds on Thursday over Teheran’s proposals, with American officials saying they fall short of satisfying international demands, and the Russians saying there was something to talk about. [...]

Justice, Democracy MULTILATERALISM. All the buzzwords and music to engagement eager grand bargainers ears are hear.  In return for some appeasement everything can be magically solved! Security, political, economic problems, cultural issues.. PEACE ON EARTH!!!

This is some pretty devious & clever stuff. Iran delays for 8 months after previously delaying in talks for 6 years, and just as things look ugly for them sanction wise they pull the steak off the table entirely, while baiting the biggest suckers with all the trimmings instead.

All the while the not so subtle offering of a juicy dessert for Iran & its proponents – the focus on Israel in particular, in combination with a cynical play on Obama’s own declared sensitivities regarding nuclear weapons, disarmament and overall Hope & Change. This US Admin already lit a fire under the Israel nuclear pot this spring, Iran is just stepping up & stirring it. After all, how could they disregard that very large Obama gift? Instead they’ve wrapped it in a pretty hope & change bow & re-gifted it right back.

Obama’s Administration is vulnerable

In a normal world we could dismiss it all out of hand, but so far US foreign policy is not operating in a normal world. Months of engagement failure have only now just barely begun to contain Obama’s hope & delusion. Most of that reality slowly creeping in is as a result of Congressional & European displeasure, not any overt acknowledgment that the policy is naive despite the protestations of Denis Ross.

The door is still wide open, and even the September deadline is already slipping back to 2010 in regards to implementing any sanctions. If Iran’s play can whip up enough support in the ‘US engagement at all costs community’ with their little switcheroo – We could be right back at square one, and Iran will be pleased as punch along with having the ability to deliver a nuclear one.

Hope & ShortChange: Obama’s Entire Foreign Policy Reset Fails to Boot (Video)

American Policy Still ‘Stuck On Stupid’

In Lebanon Hezbollah is set to return to full status-quo, and will soon be given control of at least 1/3rd of Lebanon’s government. Don’t hold your breath waiting for the US Administration to tout the glories of Obama’s Cairo speech in achieving this ‘amazing’ result however, as it is too early to celebrate because Hezbollah figures it can get even MORE!

In Syria, a flurry of diplomatic American concessions have resulted in no hope and even less change. In Israel massive pressure has failed to move the Israeli government or public toward Obama’s initiatives, if anything relations have soured. Upcoming settlement deals leave out Jerusalem entirely and look very similar from what we can see so far.. to the deal negotiated with Former President Bush, the one that Clinton & Obama claimed never existed.

There’s some success here somewhere, we just have to dig & find it

On the Palestinian side, positions thanks to Obama have hardened. The Palestinians have delusionally decided to wait for the US President to deliver Israel to them.. Good luck with that. In latin America the US has thrown a former small ally Honduras to the curb, while propping up the commie strongman Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. In Asia the North Koreans have tested a nuclear weapon, missiles, and have only just begun to test the new American president himself.

In Europe, there has been no additional support for the Afghan mission whatsoever. The Czechs & Polish are feeling slighted over Obama’s appeasement of Russia in relation to missile defense, and in return for the American appeasement the Russians have delivered zilch. Despite the bow seen round the world, the Saudis sent Mr. Obama packing and rejected Obama’s peace process reset out of hand. They followed that up by doing so on TV for all to see, at the White House yet!

The War on Terror has been erased from the American lexicon. It is now known as “overseas contingency operations”, lest someone who is Muslim be offended by the fact that 99.95% of all terrorism is carried out by.. fellow Muslims.

As for Iran? They have pulled their nuclear program off the table of any negotiation past present or future. Instead they have offered to have televised debates between President Obama & Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, one imagines in order to milk America for even more legitimacy than Obama has already bestowed on the rogue regime. Woohoo!

President or Avon Lady?

When one considers all this foreign policy success, the words train wreck come to mind. It may be time to Reset the Reset, as Obama’s operating system is now failing to boot completely. Jackson Diehl writes in the WP..

[...] In fact, one of the emerging lessons of the Obama administration’s foreign policy might be summed up as follows: The idea that presidential “direct diplomacy” with actors such as Chávez, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Kim Jong Il or Fidel Castro is feasible or likely to produce results is, well, naive.

It’s not that Obama hasn’t tried. According to reports in the Iranian media he has dispatched two letters to Iran’s supreme cleric, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He has sent multiple high-level envoys to meet Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. Shortly after the administration took office, a new special representative for North Korea publicly offered bilateral negotiations to Pyongyang; former president Bill Clinton later met dictator Kim with the administration’s sanction. Obama graciously accepted Chávez’s gift of a stridently anti-American book and later dispatched a new ambassador to Caracas. He lifted some sanctions on Cuba. The problem is that none of this has brought any results.

Remember When? Obama’s foreign policy in a nutshell (Video)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSFSUbMWenU&feature=player_embedded

Back in reality, Ralph Peters writes in the NY Post: Bam Vs Democracy

[...] if Obama thinks that handing over a “little” country he couldn’t find on a map is going to win him enduring applause and cooperative friends in Latin America, he’s crazy. What he’s actually doing is frightening our friends. If democratic governments south of the border can’t rely on US support, to whom can they turn?

The increasingly left-wing tone from the White House may be satisfying to ideological activists, but it’s doing tremendous damage to the cause of freedom in our hemisphere.

Not to worry though because the cheerleaders are still out in force despite the fact the home team is getting shellacked. The NY Times, the LA Times, the major networks, most of cable news – American media is still touting the great One! You rarely hear anything about these massive failures. Domestically these media outlets are too busy providing cover for the disastrous health-care, stimulus, and soaring deficits Obama has racked up.

American policy may be stuck on stupid, but not the American people. Obama’s polling has taken a leap off the side of Mt Rushmore. He’s falling faster in polling than any US President in history. How many more times will he be able to hit the reset button on the way down before the big splat is the big question now?

Update: I fixed the H in Jackson Diehl’s name, I keep putting it in the wrong place. This is at least the 4th time I’ve had to fix the guy’s name here in posts the last few months. Credit to him for writing good stuff worth linking. Sorry Jackson, I’d say it won’t happen again but heck it’s habit already ; )

Epic Fail: Abrams Blasts US Syrian Appeasement Policy

Obama’s Open Hand to Nowhere Results in Predictable Syrian Slap to the Face

Bush’s Deputy National Security Adviser Elliott Abrams takes us there blow by blow, courtesy of the ever delish Weekly Standard..

The Obama administration has been trying out a new policy toward Syria since the day it came to office. The Bush cold shoulder was viewed as a primitive reaction, now to be replaced by sophisticated diplomacy. Outreach would substitute for isolation. Thus there have been six visits to Damascus by high-level administration officials, including two by George Mitchell. Moreover, the administration has signaled that its handling of export license applications for Syria will be more “flexible” than that of the Bush administration, which tried to deny every shipment it could.

Well, the returns are in. Within the past week, Iraq has withdrawn its ambassador from Damascus and accused Syria of involvement in terrorist incidents in Baghdad. Iraqi TV has also aired a confession by an accused al Qaeda terrorist, a Saudi who claimed he had been trained in Syria–by the Asad regime’s intelligence services. Nor is this all. Syria continues to support Hezbollah’s blocking of the formation of a government in Lebanon, backing Hezbollah in its demand for a “blocking third” that would prevent any decisions Hezbollah opposes in any new Cabinet. The Palestinian terrorist groups remain headquartered in Damascus, and under no visible restraints. And on August 19, President Bashar Asad paid a visit to President Ahmadinejad in Tehran, to showcase his support of the latter during the current Iranian political crisis. [...]

You can smell the generous dollop of sarcasm Abrams drops on us with his ‘sophisticated diplomacy’ shot above, as soon as I read that I knew I’d be blogging about this one. I love that! Critics will point out that Obama has in theory maintained the ‘US tough guy stance’ toward Syria by renewing American Congressional sanctions slapped on the regime by the Bush Administration, albeit minus the now granted gift of export licenses mentioned above for technical parts & other goodies. Further, the argument inevitably leads to critics saying the Bush strategy did not produce desired results, so ‘hope & change’ was needed.

More Yummyness..

To this criticism Abrams fires off an unexpected volley, the Bush strategy was too tame & weak. With evidence pouring in that Syria has been for years now allowing the open flow of men & matériel to Iraq with the goal of fighting Americans, Abrams counters that a more aggressive strategy would have been effective and that the tools – A massive US military presence along the border regions with Iraq were close at hand.

Hawks Speaking Out

Which brings up another related manner. VP Cheney’s recent comments to Fox News Sunday which carried a not so subtle undertone. The second half of the Bush administration’s two terms exhibited a much weaker foreign policy stance across the board. One which clearly created debate within the administration with Cheney and hawks lined up versus Condi Rice and the organs of State.

We can deduce without much trouble where Elliott might fall opinion wise. Cheney himself spoke about Iran, but this weakened stance exhibited itself in relation to Syria & North Korea, and finally in the Annapolis process as well which was clearly Condi’s baby. This weakness was most especially pronounced & came to the fore clearly when Condi lobbied to have America halt Israel from successfully striking the Syrian illicit nuclear program, which was frankly a stunning bit of appeasement that Bush thankfully resisted.

Realists vs NeoCons

It all comes full circle. Abrams speaks about the lack of moral clarity we’re now seeing under President Obama in relation to Syria, but just as glaringly we have also seen it in relation to Iran. Where Obama shamefully sacrificed American ideals to appease a brutal and vicious Iranian Revolutionary Guard military coup in order to prop up his already failing strategy on that front too.

The new Obama policy has produced no change in Syrian conduct, but it has produced a change in American behavior: Now we have even lost the moral clarity with which America used to speak about the nature and actions of the Asad regime.

But that is in essence the great American dilemma right now isn’t it?

With realists driving American foreign policy; Freedom, American values and sacrosanct American ideals which are the basis of neoconservative policies have taken a back seat to cold often faulty calculating ‘realism’. Screw Democracy, it’s now a moment by moment mish mash of washed up, moraless, academia induced nonsense. There’s no map or guiding principles. In short – An epic fail in both result and what has been sacrificed.. The American moral high ground.

Divergence on Iran: Obama Needs to Play Catch-up With Americans; As Usual

He’s President of The United States of America, Not MoveOn.Org

 New polling out confirms previous American attitudes on Iran & reveals yet another core issue on which the President is seemingly off the mark compared to his constituents, the American people. But first, the previous numbers relating specifically to striking Iran militarily.

In May I posted about Rasmussen polling which showed American support for Israel vs Iran was going up, in contrast to the harsh tones coming out of the Obama Administration relating to Israel..

With the screws ever tightening between Washington & Jerusalem and Obama looking to seemingly squeeze the Jewish nation, Americans polled show increasing support numbers for their ally Israel facing an Iranian threat. Rasmussen reports a fairly dramatic 7% poll lift for Israel since last summer on the question of military force, and the USA coming to assist Israel should we be forced to strike..

Forty-nine percent (49%) of Americans say that if Israel launches an attack against Iran, the United States should help Israel. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 37% believe the United States should do nothing while just 2% believe the U.S. should help Iran. Last summer, just 42% said the United States should help Israel while 46% said the nation should do nothing.

Sixty-four percent (64%) of Republicans say that the U.S. should help Israel as do 50% of those not affiliated with either major political party. A plurality of Democrats (44%) say that the U.S. should do nothing. [...]

On the question in general of American priorities, again our allies showed strong predilection for stopping Iran, and not just for Israel’s sake. Americans polled previously viewed Iran as the number one foreign policy threat to the United States of America specifically due to the nuclear threat.

Stopping Iran is considered by American voters top priority, and this informed public has come to the realization it may be up to its ally Israel should other efforts fail. If that is the case, Israel requires both American moral support & assistance which numbers show are forthcoming overall from our American friends on the military front.

Sixty-six percent (66%) of all voters now say that preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons is more important than preventing war between Iran and Israel. That’s up fourteen percentage points from 52% last July.

Just 23% now say preventing war between Iran and Israel is more important than stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons

Iran is racing ahead toward nuclear weapons.

With Obama’s Administration lording & linking Palestinian issues over Israel as a pre-requisite for assisting its ally, these numbers and American opinion are crucial. If we are forced to strike, the chances of success are magnified exponentially with our ally’s quiet assistance. Israel has already made major concessions in the quest for peace under Netanyahu, but to date we have not seen Obama become more forceful on Iran despite the glaring failures apparent to all with his much hyped ‘engagement strategy’.

New Numbers Show Americans Again Standing Up to Iran – Where is Obama?

On the topic of averting strikes through strong non military means involving sanctions or fuel blockades, Americans speak out loudly in overwhelming numbers leaving the President in their dust & significantly out to lunch for months now. The Israel Project has new polling out which confirms trends seen previously via Rasmussen’s polling.

New Bipartisan Poll on Iran

According to a new poll conducted by Public Opinion Strategies and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and commissioned by The Israel Project:

• 81 percent of American voters believe Iran is a serious threat to U.S.
• Two-thirds support proposal to “prevent any company doing business in the United States if that company provides Iran with refined petroleum.”

Washington, D.C. – A new bipartisan poll (Word document, PowerPoint) commissioned by The Israel Project (TIP) shows that an overwhelming number of Americans (81%) believe that Iran poses a serious threat to the United States, and that the international community should prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons (86%).

Further, Americans agree (84%) that “even with all the problems the nation faces here at home, we must still work hard to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons.”

TIP Founder Jennifer Laszlo Mizrahi noted that, “While we may be mired in a recession and focused on the nation’s health care debate, there is no lack of concern among Americans about the potential threat posed by a nuclear Iran.”

Among possible approaches to deal with Iran, Americans favor a combination of approaches — supporting opposition groups in Iran that are working for democracy and human rights (86%), initiating direct talks between the U.S. and Iran (76%) and expanding UN economic and diplomatic sanctions (81%).

Most interesting was the two-thirds support given by Americans to a proposal to “prevent any company doing business in the United States if that company provides Iran with refined petroleum.” [...]

Indeed, it appears that for Americans – Whether it be strong upped sanctions & possible fuel blockades; or supporting Israel if it feels the need to avert an existential Iranian nuclear threat.. The support is there and often overwhelmingly so.

As I posted previously, there are Senate & House bills proposed which allow the President to implement precisely these forms of sanctions awaiting Obama’s go ahead. They have been sitting around since April in the drawer.

Meanwhile, pressure is brought to bear on Israel as opposed to on Iran?

This has been the case for 7 months now despite the evident failures this strategy has produced. Why is the American President so divergent from the American people on these issues? What has he been waiting for?

Obama made so much of former President Bush’s inability to admit he was wrong while out on the campaign trail. Yet the not so new any longer American President shows a surprising amount of ego & arrogance when he has to date exhibited.. More of the same.

When do we get to see Mr. Gibbs stand up at the podium and tell the American people & the rest of the World that the President’s engagement strategy has to date  failed, and that instead of blindly appeasing Iran; the President is going to try appeasing the American people a bit instead?

Unmentionables: 4 Star General Writes “There Is a Military Option on Iran”

Hide the Women & Children, run for the hills..

The Obama administration and the entire American hard left may have a full conniption, General Wald – You are NOT ALLOWED to talk about these things. The talking points all state clearly that any military option will fail even though it won’t. The official line is a softening on Iran, a legitimization of the illegitimate Iranian regime and appeasement of the Mullahs. All leading to accepting what has been termed by US administrations both past & present as unacceptable: A nuclear bomb armed Iran.

As such the views of this enlightened US Air Force Four Star General need to be totally discounted immediately, everything he says is absolutely true but someone needs to tear him up a little, get some character assassination revved up or something. Eeegads I mean look at some of this stuff printed in the WSJ..

In a policy address at the Council on Foreign Relations last month, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said of Iran, “We cannot be afraid or unwilling to engage.” But the Iranian government has yet to accept President Obama’s outstretched hand. Even if Tehran suddenly acceded to talks, U.S. policy makers must prepare for the eventuality that diplomacy fails. While there has been much discussion of economic sanctions, we cannot neglect the military’s role in a Plan B.

There has been a lack of serious public discussion of the military tools available to us. Any mention of them is either met with accusations of warmongering or hushed with concerns over sharing sensitive information. It is important to discuss, within legal limits, such a serious issue as openly as possible. Discussion strengthens our democracy and dispels misinformation.

The military can play an important role in solving this complex problem without firing a single shot. Publicly signaling serious preparation for a military strike might obviate the need for one if deployments force Tehran to recognize the costs of its nuclear defiance. Mr. Obama might consider, for example, the deployment of additional carrier battle groups and minesweepers to the waters off Iran, and the conduct of military exercises with allies.

If such pressure fails to impress Iranian leadership, the U.S. Navy could move to blockade Iranian ports. A blockade—which is an act of war—would effectively cut off Iran’s gasoline imports, which constitute about one-third of its consumption. Especially in the aftermath of post-election protests, the Iranian leadership must worry about the economic dislocations and political impact of such action.

Should these measures not compel Tehran to reverse course on its nuclear program, and only after all other diplomatic avenues and economic pressures have been exhausted, the U.S. military is capable of launching a devastating attack on Iranian nuclear and military facilities.

Many policy makers and journalists dismiss the military option on the basis of a false sense of futility. They assume that the U.S. military is already overstretched, that we lack adequate intelligence about the location of covert nuclear sites, and that known sites are too heavily fortified.

Such assumptions are false. [...]

Mein Got! I say again, Shhhhhh!

There is no military option. None for Israel, none for the USA. We need to appease Iran at all costs anything less is simply uncivilized. Read the whole thing, it is frankly alarming that there are Generals retired or not still willing to speak of defending American interests with every tool in the arsenal available, diplomatic, economic or military. Off to the gallows with him. You simply are not allowed to be more Presidential than the President himself – It’s heresy.

This calls for a few goons..

Someone call Organized American Labor, rough him up a bit or something otherwise it may lead to ‘Mobs’ & ‘Townhalls’ and concerned American citizens drinking ‘Tea’ or something. Can’t have ANY of that in the era of American Hope & Short Change.

Gd Bless America, or what’s left of her for now.

Hat Tip to RealClearWorld

Missile Zone: Stepped Up Israeli ABM Tests Target Iran (Analysis)

Cross-hairs: Iran

Yesterday Yaakov Katz reported the positive news that Israel’s 3rd tier missile defense system known as Iron Dome had past a milestone by being successfully tested against multiple targets.

The Iron Dome missile defense system successfully intercepted a number of rockets that mimicked Kassam and short-range Grad-model Katyusha rockets in a series of tests the Defense Ministry conducted this week.

Iron Dome, under development by Rafael Defense Systems, is slated to become operational sometime in 2010 and to be capable of intercepting short-range Kassam and Katyusha rockets fired by Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hizbullah in southern Lebanon. The Iron Dome uses an advanced radar that locates and tracks the rocket, which is then intercepted by a kinetic missile interceptor.

“A multilevel defense system is a strategic goal for the State of Israel and will provide a layer of protection against short-range rockets,” Defense Minister Ehud Barak said. “This will allow the IDF to fulfill its obligation to protect Israel in the best way that it can.” [...]

Questions remain over the 3rd Tier

Despite the fact that Iron Dome itself has been speed developed and is being deployed in the next few months some caution is warranted. The system is not without numerous detractors, and for obvious reasons. The interceptors themselves are not cheap. A stark contrast to the sheer volume of relatively cheap unguided Qassam, Katusha & GRAD rockets it is designed to intercept, estimated to number in the tens of thousands in Lebanon alone.

That being said, Iron Dome may be headed for deployment and will surely be able to protect sensitive sites.. But this particular level of our unique in the world 3 tiered shield will likely be the most porous.

I captured this image of the Iron Dome interceptor last summer, it was the 1st public display of the system in Israel (Photo Haaretz)

I captured this image of the Iron Dome interceptor last summer, it was the 1st public display of the system in Israel (Photo Haaretz)

In the Lebanon War II conflict, there were many days when we saw in excess of 100+ unguided Katusha type rockets launched by Hezbollah at Israeli civilians. During the recent conflict in Gaza we also saw much the same with hundreds of Qassams and the occasional GRAD (20+ KM range) fired toward Israel. Iron Dome is headed in fact first to Gaza for multi-battery deployments. The question I am left with is, since Iron Dome will need to be selective in what it can engage due to cost & volume, I am wondering if the system’s radar can isolate both direction and likely impact on threat launch, in order to selectively target the more high valued projectiles inbound to the densest or most sensitive areas in Israel.

Keep in mind, flight times from launch to impact for the shortest range threats measure in the seconds and come in at under a minute. This leaves me a bit skeptical, I believe Iron Dome will need to be in the future as we move forward, buttressed by other short range interception systems like those used by the Americans to guard their ships. Close-in Gatling / Vulcan type cannons or something similar.

1st Tier will get a workout too

Also in the news this week coming out of the DOD, additional Arrow-2 tests off the California Pacific Coast. The Arrow is of course the joint Israeli American designed anti-ballistic missile system. The 1st of its kind and the 1st to be deployed to shield an entire country from large ballistic & scud type threats. Second generation Arrow-2 batteries have been deployed in Israel for a number of years now.

Last month I wrote that the Iranian Sejil-2, their newest Ballistic Missile (now reportedly already headed for mass production) will pose new challenges to Israel’s 1st tier Arrow shield due to its advancements & speed. Currently, it is a race between Iranian production capacity and Israeli ingenuity. Software and system updates will be required in our current generation Arrows to counter the threat properly. I have little doubt that this more expansive test all the way off the coast of California is part & parcel of that effort.

This is not the 1st Arrow test launching north of LA incidentally, but Debka does a good job filling in some detail regarding this upcoming test’s characteristics..

In a few days, the Israeli anti-missile Arrow system will face the first real test, weather permitting, of its ability to knock out an Iranian Shehab-3 or Sejil II ballistic missile at the outset of its flight toward Israel, DEBKAfile’s military sources report. The test will take place off central California’s Pacific coast.

Lieut. Gen. Patrick O’Reilly, director of the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency, said Tuesday, July 14: “The test will allow Israel to measure its advanced Arrow 3 system against a target with a range of more than 620 miles (1,000 km), too long for previous Arrow test sites in the eastern Mediterranean.”

The test will try and engage a target not only upwards of 1,000 km distant but close to its launch. Until now, our military sources report, Arrow tests have been restricted by the small area of the Mediterranean Sea [...]

According to our military sources, this third Arrow exercise from a US site will also examine US-Israeli cooperation in missile interception in the event of an Iranian response to a possible Israeli strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities or an Iranian pre-emptive missile attack on Israel.

General O’Reilly announced that this would be the first full test of the ability of the American and Israeli intercept systems to work together and “provides us the opportunity to have the Patriot system, the THAAD system and the Aegis system all interacting with the Arrow system so that we’re demonstrating full interoperability as we execute this test.”

Joint Operations

Indeed, the interoperability of these systems was a gift from former President Bush in his last year of office, one of several it should be mentioned (here’s looking at you Mr. Obama). It was spearheaded by a Congressional effort led by Congressman Mark Kirk of Illinois (R). The effort culminated with the delivery last year & installation of an American mini base, at the IAF SuperBase – Nevatim. The American base presence, the 1st of its kind in Israel designed to house & operate the fulcrum of this interoperability effort, the American X-Band long range radar.

The X-Band radar, tied into America’s global satellite and nuclear / missile launch detection systems are what pull together the relevant anti-ballistic missile platforms; the older Patriot, brand new THAAD, sea based AEGIS, in conjunction with Israel’s IAF Arrow-2. It is the most comprehensive ABM system on the planet once it can be ironed out fully, making this 1st test of the joint Israeli US systems replicated off the California coast a major step.

It should be mentioned that the Arrow-2 and its under development Arrow-3 big brother are also under consideration for US use, in conjunction with the other American defense systems in defense of the North American continent. Equally, the major components of the Arrow are built by Boeing under contract with finishing in Israel. I mention that because it’s really only at the current iteration of the White House lately where some are so eager to create what they are calling ‘Daylight’ between America & Israel in general, as opposed to celebrating the extraordinary mutual alliance designed to benefit us all in ways we don’t often consider or imagine.

It also belies a common myth regarding Iran, Israel & America

The notion that Israel will ever truly be on its own if it decides to strike at Iran. Even if the USA is adamant against such a strike, even if it threatened punitive action. In my opinion these joint systems irrespective of US feelings would jump into action to intercept the likely incoming Iranian ballistics headed toward Israel, this is nearly a certainty. Tens of billions if not hundreds of them have been spent on these efforts and Missile Defense. This cooperation is also now a bedrock of the US Israel alliance going as far back as Bush I, when Israel in return for the genesis of these agreements did not retaliate against Saddam Hussein in the 1st Gulf War, when he launched some 50 Scud Missiles at Israeli populations & US Patriots were deployed.

There are other exercises involving joint US Israel military platforms and ABM systems on tap as well beyond those we have already seen & this most recent upcoming California test. At the same time, we see Israel clearly racing in order to upgrade, test, and deploy multiple tiers of our fairly unique 3 tier system. Tier-2, known as David’s Sling is designed to intercept medium range missile threats and is also under concurrent development with Iron Dome above. Equally, Israel is publicly & loudly moving naval assets back & forth through the Egyptian Suez Canal, saber rattling both the IDF hardware (Ships & Subs) and joint Israeli-Egyptian cooperation Iran is facing if it does not cease & desist shortly.

Taken in its entirety some things are clear, Israel is following its timelines for massive preparation. At the same time trying to restore some of the leverage lost by the US administration in its engagement strategies – By filling in the American component seemingly missing under the Obama administration, the threat of military action.

While I was capping the images of Iron Dome above, its bigger sister known as David's Sling was also on display for the 1st time. The interceptor is larger and mean looking if I say so myself as far as missiles go.. You can see clearly, it is a 2 stage system meant for larger threats of the Iranian ZelZal type.

While I was capping the images of Iron Dome above, its bigger sister known as David's Sling was also on display. The interceptor is larger and mean looking if I say so myself as far as missiles go.. You can see clearly, it is a 2 stage system meant for larger threats of the Iranian ZelZal type.

The countdown is on

Clearly, if forced we will strike. Every asset and all of Israel’s national efforts are from disparate angles convening toward preventing a nuclear Iran. Currently we are flexing in deterrent and often. But underneath every flex, lies a palpable & painful for the Iranian regime truth. The flexes are always part and parcel or an aspect of development, training, testing, deployment, etc for the real deal.

Testing weapons, resolve, alliances.. Historically these amounts of Israeli preparations have seen devastating results for its enemies, just ask the Syrians or Egyptians. The Iranian regime would be wise I think to take any deal it can, and quickly lest 2010 be one of record for the Islamic Revolution, but for all the wrong reasons.