Tag Archives: IAEA

Obama Prowess: 5 Months of Negotiations; 3 Month Iranian Nuke Delay (Update)

Sorta reminds me of Robert Gibbs’ Job Creation math

Mohamed El-Baradei is finishing up his crowning achievement after providing a decade’s worth of cover for rogue regime illicit nuclear programs. It’s sure to be touted as almost messianic by Obama’s all too eager sycophantic media cheerleaders. Too bad in reality the deal stinks.

The draft agreement between the great powers and Iran celebrated by International Atomic Energy Agency Chief Mohamed ElBaradei is no more than confirmation of the proposal submitted by Iranian representative Saeed Jalili in the first round of talks with the Security Council’s five permanent members and Germany.

The proposal constitutes a clever Iranian move: According to the deal, Tehran will sacrifice roughly 1,400 kilograms (about 3,000 pounds) of the low-grade enriched uranium (that is, 3-5%) produced at its enrichment plant in Natanz in exchange for Western recognition in principle of Iran’s right to enrich uranium on its own soil.

We should also note that we are talking about Iran giving up only 75% of the uranium quantity it already enriched (at least as far as the IAEA knows.) [...]

It was clear that Obama had waffled entirely on this point months ago, and the goal was now to get a deal, any deal – As opposed to stopping the Iranians. Anything to proudly tout as an accomplishment from the WH podium amid endless failures that seemingly all point to the fact that the entire Obama platform is one big bust.

We have learned that this deal has involved direct negotiations between the US & Iran stemming all the way back to June. Which explains why Obama was so non-chalant about propping up the Islamic regime while it was busy murdering & raping Iranian citizens and stealing elections. El Presidente had to be cautious, lest he tip his engagement boat which was already out to sea – Charming!

Smart Power

Doing the negotiation math, we can quickly calculate that this deal has been 5 months in the making from June until now. Sadly, the payoff is not all it is cracked up to be.

This is a modest step forward, at best.  “We are buying something like seven to 10 months,” a nameless insider told the Christian Science Monitor. And even that short timeline might be an overstatement.

There are at least 50 cascades of 164 centrifuges each now installed at at the Natanz enrichment facility, although many were still under vacuum in August. According to Alexander Glaser, a single cascade of 164 IR-1 centrifuges could be expected to produce up to 113 kilograms of 3.5% low enriched uranium (LEU) per year. Discount the efficiency of operations somewhat (Geoff Forden suggests 85% based on past performance at Natanz), and Iran could recreate 1,200 kilograms of LEU in a shade over four months using 36 cascades. With 54 cascades going, it would take less than three months.

(HT / Goldfarb)

Wooohoo!

So in return for granting total legitimacy to Iran to continue enriching Uranium. In return for dropping the number one red line set out by the west.. After 5 months of ‘negotiation’ Obama & the western powers are going to help Iran enrich their current stock even higher to 20%, then return the nuclear fuel rods and in the mean Iran will make even more enriched Uranium – Replacing the quantity sold to the west in approximately 3-7 months..

Carry the two, divide by 8.. disregard the exponent & voilà!! Fuzzy math!

That, my friend is worthy of a Peace Prize!

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UPDATE Oct 22: Hello? Where is everybody?

Been sorta scratching my head wondering where official reaction to the draft deal was!? It’s been over 24 hours now and I felt like I was hanging out on a limb. Sometimes this happens in blogging, usually when you screw up big time. I even went back to double check stories on the draft deal in case I missed something.. Because Israel, the blogs & press have been pretty silent.

Never fear, must have just been caution. Barak at the Israeli President’s Conference confirms the major beef with this very very bad deal for Israel:

Barak: Deal could give Iran legitimacy to enrich uranium.

This is now the lead at JPOST, YNET & Haaretz thankfully..

Squeeze Play: Iran Tries the ‘Old Israel Switcheroo’ with America

Thanks.. But No Thanks

Plenty of action on the rogue regime front this week, with Iran delivering what it calls a ‘new proposal’ to the p5+1 for “Negotiations”. There are a number of interesting aspects to this proposal.

Chiefly among them is the fact that Iran has flatly refused to discuss or cease its nuclear program, or table uranium enrichment issues which constitutes the number one demand from the West.

Clearly, this is a stalling & delay tactic. But the Iranians in charge over there in Iranistan are a clever bunch. They’ve zeroed in specifically on comments made by the Obama administration, and used them to their own advantage in order to build on some unlikely allies – The hard left in the US and even within Obama’s own administration. The proposal has been leaked and within we can glean some interesting insight into Iran’s squeeze play..

The proposal, submitted by Teheran on Wednesday to representatives of the P5+1 group of nations – - the US, Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia – says Iran is prepared to enter into dialog and negotiation in order to lay the ground for lasting peace. It lists a wide range of issues for discussion, including nuclear disarmament, trade and investment and protecting human dignity.

Although the proposal makes no mention of Israel, it calls for “joint efforts and interactions to help the people of Palestine draw up a comprehensive, democratic and equitable plan in order to help the people of Palestine to achieve all-embracing peace, lasting security and to secure their fundamental rights.”

It also calls for “promoting the universality of the Non-Proliferation Treaty,” and “putting into action real and fundamental programs toward complete disarmament and preventing the development and proliferation of nuclear chemical and microbial weapons.” [...]

Iran seizes on issues publicly declared by Obama as priorities, cynically portends to be champions of these issues while attempting to replace itself in the hot seat with Israel. The complete disarmament mentioned is in regards to ALL nuclear weapons on the planet, a stated (somewhat absurd) pet project of President Obama himself, and a clear call to focus on Israel’s own nuclear capabilities. The innocent Iranian regime playing international moral leader.

Even more classic, this is exactly what apologists for the Iranian regime want to hear. Iran is clearly banking on those same apologists to be champions in their delay tactics. Lacking any credibility internationally whatsoever of late, the hard left & those that champion engagement with no real end game are Iran’s only outlet. So Iran lays it on mighty thick just for them, with ample bait to the softies in the Obama administration to boot!

Apparently in some quarters it is already working..

According to the document, “The Islamic Republic of Iran believes that within the framework of principles of justice, democracy and multilateralism, a wide range of security, political, economic and cultural issues at regional and global levels could be included in these negotiations with a view of fostering constructive cooperation for advancement of nations and promotion of peace and stability in the region and the world.”

The US and Russia were at odds on Thursday over Teheran’s proposals, with American officials saying they fall short of satisfying international demands, and the Russians saying there was something to talk about. [...]

Justice, Democracy MULTILATERALISM. All the buzzwords and music to engagement eager grand bargainers ears are hear.  In return for some appeasement everything can be magically solved! Security, political, economic problems, cultural issues.. PEACE ON EARTH!!!

This is some pretty devious & clever stuff. Iran delays for 8 months after previously delaying in talks for 6 years, and just as things look ugly for them sanction wise they pull the steak off the table entirely, while baiting the biggest suckers with all the trimmings instead.

All the while the not so subtle offering of a juicy dessert for Iran & its proponents – the focus on Israel in particular, in combination with a cynical play on Obama’s own declared sensitivities regarding nuclear weapons, disarmament and overall Hope & Change. This US Admin already lit a fire under the Israel nuclear pot this spring, Iran is just stepping up & stirring it. After all, how could they disregard that very large Obama gift? Instead they’ve wrapped it in a pretty hope & change bow & re-gifted it right back.

Obama’s Administration is vulnerable

In a normal world we could dismiss it all out of hand, but so far US foreign policy is not operating in a normal world. Months of engagement failure have only now just barely begun to contain Obama’s hope & delusion. Most of that reality slowly creeping in is as a result of Congressional & European displeasure, not any overt acknowledgment that the policy is naive despite the protestations of Denis Ross.

The door is still wide open, and even the September deadline is already slipping back to 2010 in regards to implementing any sanctions. If Iran’s play can whip up enough support in the ‘US engagement at all costs community’ with their little switcheroo – We could be right back at square one, and Iran will be pleased as punch along with having the ability to deliver a nuclear one.