Tag Archives: Bushehr

Send A Warning: Bust Bushehr’s Dome Now

Striking Iran requires hitting 3 separate programs – No one said it needs to be done in one blow

I propose what most would consider sheer insanity, a limited strike on Iran – Not to destroy Iran’s programs but rather to illuminate the other two brightly. We are looking at three tracks:

  1. The open track which consists of the Plutonium powered Bushehr reactor which is Russian built, Russian fueled, and ostensibly monitored by the IAEA with dubious effectiveness.
     
  2. The Uranium track which is partially hidden and consists of being ‘ideally’ monitored by the IAEA though they are not carrying out proper verification at all, this consists of widely reported Natanz and the Arak heavy water plant.
     
  3. A hidden track which consists of both Plutonium & Uranium components, Plutonium in the form of Noko assisted work in Syria on a hidden reactor and possibly more, and what everyone assumes is more hidden work on further Uranium enrichment via spinning centrifuges in underground sites spread across Iran.

A large, all encompassing strike would entail a few days of work. It would be in effect a limited war. I openly support this if it is necessary personally, and this is the big strike the media, the planet, etc often speak of. Surprise would be handy indeed to effectuate this effort as would copious ample amounts of intelligence, planning and skill. The easiest component of that strike is Bushehr, the big dome which has been under construction since the time of the Shah and is now being openly fueled by Russia with US grudging approval and is now near completion.

Send a Message

Israel should hit Bushehr, now while the weather is optimal, while the reactor is still cold, while the Russians are playing brinkmanship. Why on earth would I propose this insanity which would not cover the other two more dangerous tracks? For a number of reasons..

  • It would send a clear message to Iran and more importantly the people of Iran that Israel means business.
  • It would put Russia in an uncomfortable position, defy the world & side with Iran, or enter the world community.
  • It would if successful boost the diplomatic options for the other tracks by ten fold.
  • It could spark a reaction by Iran which opens the way to flattening the rest of their programs openly by a coalition.
  • It would light up the entire Iranian air defense network, provide a cornucopia of intel on those defense and Iranian forces.
  • It would call the Iranian bluff and show the relative ineffectiveness of Iran’s military ability compared to their much larger boasts.
  • It would be a dry run with serious training and with appreciable results for a larger limited war on Iran’s programs.
  • It would ungel Israel’s frozen military & political system which is seized up currently.
  • It would provide Olmert the coup de grace he seeks without requiring dangerous concessions he is envisioning.
  • It would place the Syrians squarely back in their box or pull them from Iran depending on Assad’s TRUE intentions.
  • It would put massive pressure on Hezbollah, perhaps break the ever growing / creep and hold on Lebanon.
  • It could put Ahmadinejad’s upcoming re-election in jeopardy, a serious blow to Iran’s progress as he is the big proponent.
  • It could deter Russia & Iran from constructing up to 5 more reactors at Bushehr as is planned and limit the out of control Russian hunger for profiting in the billions off Iran’s illicit desires.
  • It would be a massive PR blow to Iran, and provide silent begrudging respect to Israel across the region and world.
  • If planned well, the resulting activity right after captured by satellite would point out the bulk of Iran’s secret activities to Israel & the US, would also illuminate ballistic missile locations, illuminate the shore to sea Iranian missiles threatening US Naval assets.
  • Corner Iran with their oil cutoff boasts, perhaps spur the much needed but never coming blockade to avoid full scale war.

In short, a big bright light would shine brightly on the fungus and darkly stored Iranian illicit activities. In one fell swoop cards would be played with Israel and the US still holding aces. Iran may retaliate but then again the threat is always hovering that Iran will act either by itself or by directive to Hezbollah, a massive retaliation would play against Iran not for it in such a limited strike with little damage collaterally. We already live with this threat daily and it is often acted out through terrorism.

The Russian constructed Bushehr Reactor is a 'Prime Target' for a limited strike

The Russian constructed Bushehr Reactor is a prime target

Give diplomacy & reality a shot in the arm with a limited dose of force

If Israel and the world is truly serious about diplomacy which has totally stalled, this is the impetus to get it going before a full war breaks out, a small glimpse at the results of diplomacy’s failure. Highly dangerous, but not nearly as dangerous as an untamed nuclear Iran which is exactly where things are heading. I’d wager Iran’s retaliation would be negligible, they are also playing brinkmanship – It is high time someone called them out. A limited strike would be a classic Israeli move and seize the initiative which until now is all Iran’s. We already gambled in Syria and won, time to double down.

Nuclear Showdown: Is anyone besides Iran going to show up to the O.K. Corral?

Ronen Bergman a local terrorism expert and author in Israel has a brief interview translated over at YNET. In typical gruff Sabra style he lays out some of his opinions on the Iranian nuclear issue, though none of it is groundbreaking stuff. Some of the key points of his opinion include;

  • Israel has the means to hit Iran’s programs
  • Israel would seek to delay those programs not destroy them utterly
  • Israel  believes that S300 Russian anti aircraft missile systems are already in Iran
  • Israel would benefit greatly from some American assistance in striking these programs

On the issue of the S300, Jpost is also carrying a report that the willy Croats have already themselves sold off their now no longer in use S300 systems to the Iranians. What is interesting about the S300 issue is that Israeli intel has quietly hinted this is indeed the case and that the missiles are already probably deployed, what makes this issue interesting is the divergence between this opinion and that of the USA.

Sec Def Gates himself adamantly opposed to striking Iran, has issued statements to the effect that no S300 systems have been sold / delivered to Iran. When Israel raised eyebrows about such definitive statements the Pentagon became slightly more mild on the topic, to the effect that the s300 issue was being ‘monitored’ by the US in an ongoing manner, and they have again reaffirmed on the issue. Frankly, US intelligence has been lacking – unaware of the Syrian nuclear program and a great many other developments and things going on around the world.

I’d say they are unaware because they have chosen to be, in order to avoid the inconvenience of coping with realities in direct contravention to long standing US national security policy. Worse, any Russian assurances given previously regarding issues like the S300 or nuclear fuel and assistance to Iran are now moot in light of the Georgian rift and new cold war developing between Russia & the USA. The Americans under Secretary Rice & Sec. Def. Gates have been outplayed on every single front across the Middle East, Asia and now Europe in a most embarrassing way. Aside from General Petraeus’ serious heroics rallying US strategy and forces in Iraq, American policy everywhere else has pretty much collapsed.

Endless stalling, dithering

The unstable political climate in both the US & Israel due to elections and government changeovers has not helped. One gets the feeling everyone is waiting around for someone else to deal with these matters, in Israel but most especially in the US despite the fact there is no one else. The only people not waiting around are the Iranians. Aided by the Russians they are spinning centrifuges for Uranium enrichment, and now are preparing to send the Bushehr Plutonium reactor online. That is a full dual track, two full nuclear programs Uranium & Plutonium based that are speeding ahead with no one in sight to stop them. The IAEA, who’s task it is to ensure the multilateral negotiation based efforts and monitoring systems to prevent strikes, as well as theoretically prevent Iranian weaponization has fallen nearly totally silent.

The Sanctions efforts for the diplomacy push also appear to be quite ineffective. It’s quite a mess, the kind of mess you make when leaders stop leading. Olmert & Bush are both fairly guilty in this regard, both of them stopped leading a long time ago and it has nothing to do with upcoming elections in either country. The notion that lightweights like Barack Obama or Tzipi Livni can roll back these realities with their good looks and comforting words is comical. One hopes that the IAF and the US Navy / Air Force have been somewhat more responsible in these matters until now in preparation, as the Iranians have been preparing, running military  exercises and speeding their missile programs ahead at breakneck pace.