Striking Iran requires hitting 3 separate programs – No one said it needs to be done in one blow
I propose what most would consider sheer insanity, a limited strike on Iran – Not to destroy Iran’s programs but rather to illuminate the other two brightly. We are looking at three tracks:
- The open track which consists of the Plutonium powered Bushehr reactor which is Russian built, Russian fueled, and ostensibly monitored by the IAEA with dubious effectiveness.
- The Uranium track which is partially hidden and consists of being ‘ideally’ monitored by the IAEA though they are not carrying out proper verification at all, this consists of widely reported Natanz and the Arak heavy water plant.
- A hidden track which consists of both Plutonium & Uranium components, Plutonium in the form of Noko assisted work in Syria on a hidden reactor and possibly more, and what everyone assumes is more hidden work on further Uranium enrichment via spinning centrifuges in underground sites spread across Iran.
A large, all encompassing strike would entail a few days of work. It would be in effect a limited war. I openly support this if it is necessary personally, and this is the big strike the media, the planet, etc often speak of. Surprise would be handy indeed to effectuate this effort as would copious ample amounts of intelligence, planning and skill. The easiest component of that strike is Bushehr, the big dome which has been under construction since the time of the Shah and is now being openly fueled by Russia with US grudging approval and is now near completion.
Send a Message
Israel should hit Bushehr, now while the weather is optimal, while the reactor is still cold, while the Russians are playing brinkmanship. Why on earth would I propose this insanity which would not cover the other two more dangerous tracks? For a number of reasons..
- It would send a clear message to Iran and more importantly the people of Iran that Israel means business.
- It would put Russia in an uncomfortable position, defy the world & side with Iran, or enter the world community.
- It would if successful boost the diplomatic options for the other tracks by ten fold.
- It could spark a reaction by Iran which opens the way to flattening the rest of their programs openly by a coalition.
- It would light up the entire Iranian air defense network, provide a cornucopia of intel on those defense and Iranian forces.
- It would call the Iranian bluff and show the relative ineffectiveness of Iran’s military ability compared to their much larger boasts.
- It would be a dry run with serious training and with appreciable results for a larger limited war on Iran’s programs.
- It would ungel Israel’s frozen military & political system which is seized up currently.
- It would provide Olmert the coup de grace he seeks without requiring dangerous concessions he is envisioning.
- It would place the Syrians squarely back in their box or pull them from Iran depending on Assad’s TRUE intentions.
- It would put massive pressure on Hezbollah, perhaps break the ever growing / creep and hold on Lebanon.
- It could put Ahmadinejad’s upcoming re-election in jeopardy, a serious blow to Iran’s progress as he is the big proponent.
- It could deter Russia & Iran from constructing up to 5 more reactors at Bushehr as is planned and limit the out of control Russian hunger for profiting in the billions off Iran’s illicit desires.
- It would be a massive PR blow to Iran, and provide silent begrudging respect to Israel across the region and world.
- If planned well, the resulting activity right after captured by satellite would point out the bulk of Iran’s secret activities to Israel & the US, would also illuminate ballistic missile locations, illuminate the shore to sea Iranian missiles threatening US Naval assets.
- Corner Iran with their oil cutoff boasts, perhaps spur the much needed but never coming blockade to avoid full scale war.
In short, a big bright light would shine brightly on the fungus and darkly stored Iranian illicit activities. In one fell swoop cards would be played with Israel and the US still holding aces. Iran may retaliate but then again the threat is always hovering that Iran will act either by itself or by directive to Hezbollah, a massive retaliation would play against Iran not for it in such a limited strike with little damage collaterally. We already live with this threat daily and it is often acted out through terrorism.
Give diplomacy & reality a shot in the arm with a limited dose of force
If Israel and the world is truly serious about diplomacy which has totally stalled, this is the impetus to get it going before a full war breaks out, a small glimpse at the results of diplomacy’s failure. Highly dangerous, but not nearly as dangerous as an untamed nuclear Iran which is exactly where things are heading. I’d wager Iran’s retaliation would be negligible, they are also playing brinkmanship – It is high time someone called them out. A limited strike would be a classic Israeli move and seize the initiative which until now is all Iran’s. We already gambled in Syria and won, time to double down.