There’s been some solidifying of the Israeli political scope this weekend, and likely coalition results are taking form. Here’s some highlights and commentary on how it looks according to my filter of the news..

Labor / Kadima

Back on the 31st of last month I speculated that Olmert could get away (if he was savvy) with giving Labor only 5 portfolios. With inflated egos came inflated demands, I’ve felt all along that Labor’s card was overplayed. The demand for 7+ portfolios / cabinet seats including finance and education was absurd given Labor’s actual election results. Finance meant unwieldy economic policies and spending that would ruin Israel’s economy in a few years, and education was promised by Ariel Sharon personally to Prof. Uriel Reichman.

The results seem to point to a total collapse by Kadima to Labor. Finance stays with Kadima, which frankly is not a Labor concession since Kadima is forming the Government. Labor gets not five portfolios as was being suggested before the weekend by smart kadima negotiators, but the full 7! Peretz gets the Defense portfolio leaving Mofaz cut out. On top of Defense, the second most senior portfolio in all the land, Labor also takes the Education Ministry.

So let it be written, so shall it not be done

The concession of Labor seems to be sitting in the Govt even if Lieberman’s right of center Israel Our Home party is in the coalition, something to which Labor is on record as being adamantly opposed. The demand seems obscene, typical of the center left of Israel to dictate which mandates should be valid for government when voted in Israel, and which are not. Now it seems Lieberman is being denied entry in any case..

Attorney general rules Israel Our Home chairman may not serve as internal security minister whilst being probed by police for irregularities in party funding
Tal Rosner

Attorney-General Menachem Mazuz ruled Sunday evening that Israel Our Home leader Avigdor Lieberman may not serve as Internal Security Minister while being probed by police.

Mazuz notified Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of his legal opinion on the matter. Israel Our Home had told Olmert’s Kadima that it will not join the coalition government if Lieberman is not given the Internal Security Ministry. [...] Ynet

Olmert Capitulates

Only Olmert himself dares go for more obscene by campaigning under Ariel Sharon’s vision;

Only to reneg on the education portfolio Sharon promised, strip Mofaz of Defense, while allowing Hamas to takeover Palestinian Government.. All the while wasting no time handing out 7 seats to the Emir Peretz, and caving on every front..
making Labor and I quote:

"Very satisfied with coalition negotiation results." Haaretz

Let’s be clear about one thing, he may have campaigned on Sharon but it’s all Olmert vision now. Sharon seemed a bit more strategic too me and opted for other avenues beyond mere coalition capitulation. Labor should be celebrating, they got the social benefits issues they wanted addressed, they got Defense for Peretz, they got Education which they wanted almost as much, they got the full 7 seats, and now Lieberman is probably out too!

Mofaz is peeved

Of course the good tidings don’t end there for Kadima in this coalition. Once their agreement with Labor is signed, they have to finalize with Shas, the Pensioners, UTJ, and deal with the Israel Our Home obstacles - thankfully much of the initial work is done. It will look easy compared to having Mofaz leave Kadima, feeling slighted for being denied any of the Kadima spoils by the Baron Olmert.

Ynet Crisis not only with Reichman: Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz met Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Sunday for talks in which he was notified that he won’t be keeping his post in the new government, which is will be given to Labor Chairman Amir Peretz.

Both sides described the meeting as "difficult."

Mofaz asked that he be allowed to keep the Defense portfolio, or be given either the Finance or Foreign ministry.

Earlier it was reported that in the meeting Olmert told Mofaz he wants him to be a minister and play a leading role in running the country and Kadima. Olmert’s aides said Mofaz was not offered a portfolio.

The Foreign Ministry will remain with Tzipi Livni, who will also serve as deputy prime minister. The Finance Ministry will stay with Kadima but it is unclear who will be given the portfolio [...]

There’s plenty of bitterness at the Kadima camp, a stronger negotiation and sounder tactics would have yielded a concession or two with ease, putting out at least one of the Reichman or Mofaz crisis blunders and giving Olmert’s leadership a jolt of legitimacy.

Does anyone for a second believe that Labor was not going to enter this Government?

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Following up on the Shaul Mofaz as Defense Minister debate and post, I came across this poll (Tuesday, April 11th) broadcast on Israel Channel 1 News’ Politica show, the details are in Hebrew but I’ll translate.

Polling topic: Do you trust the following as Defense Minister for Israel?

Trusted: Shaul Mofaz 54% (kadima) ; Avi Dichter 40% (Labor) ; Amir Peretz 17% (Labor)

And the reverse, answering in the negative;
or Not trusted for Defense Minister..

Amir Perets 59% (Labor) ; Shaul Mofaz 23% (Kadima) ; Avi Dichter 19% (Labor)

IBA.ORG.IL / Channel 1

Some pretty ugly looking numbers fo the coalitions to chew on over the Passover holiday break, negotiations set to resume even during Chol-Hamoed, the non high holiday days of Passover. I’m relieved to see I’m not the only one who thinks Peretz is not really cut out for this particular post, 59% is a difficult number to ignore no matter how you spin it..

Commentary from one of the Generals on the panel?
Paraphrasing – No one is out of bounds for the position, but in constructing the Govt and building the positions, sometimes egos are not as important as what benefits the State of Israel the most, and this should not be lost in priorities.. For the benefit of Israel this commentator suggested either Mofaz or Dichter as Defense Minister, according to order. (Eitan Ben Eliyahu, General / Air Force, reserves)

Once the coalitions agree on the Government’s agenda, the messy portfolio or ministry handouts will begin, should be a doosie.

Tags: Israel, Defense, Politics

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Israel facing the gamut of threats seems to have its Fox on the block? Why the Korban?

Labor ego run amok

This is one magic trick that is somewhat less amusing. Only in the world of Israeli coalitions can this sort of craziness go on. The press in Israel have stated as much, Olmert has stated as much, Labor has stated a much, Shaul Defense Minister for 5 years, Iron Man of Israel is slated to be replaced by Amir Peretz!? In order to understand how I feel about this self serving pile of camel dung being served fresh, we need to look back.

When Arik put a Shaul in the hen house..

Ariel Sharon won the 2003 Israeli election and the Likud secured a massive 40 odd seat sweep. The bulldog was back hard, Sharon, being the only PM to be elected back to back in Israeli history. This big win had come after Labor leader Ben Eliezer had yanked his own party from the coalition previously, selfishly I might add in a self serving manner while Israel was at war in the second intifada. Labor paid a big price.

The Magic Man

That earlier Labor politically motivated move left Ariel Sharon with a slim majority in the Knesset. To shore up the public confidence after the treasonous Labor moves, Sharon named former IDF Chief of Staff Shaul Mofaz to become the Defense Minister of Israel. Fateful stuff history would show.

This was a Sharon classic, Mofaz had used the sharp tool of the IDF to pound the enemy. He was an Iron Man, the move drew condemnation and woe from around the World, seen as a serious shift right towards a more military stance. Myself I was ecstatic already a big fan of Mofaz’ via his IDF chief stint. To have Sharon as the PM and Mofaz in defense it seemed to me in the height of war a victory was now assured, this was somewhat biblical as far as I was concerned.

The spirit of resolve, Mofaz deserves some of the credit

Indeed, Mofaz and Sharon broke the Intifada, established unheard of military moves that shocked the planet and are today grounded Israeli policies. Mofaz played a key role in breaking Hamas from the suicide violence. Equally, while steering the IDF as minister Mofaz made deterrence a political reality of sorts again. This guy is a hero as far as I’m concerned.

After Ehud Barak’s bumbling, and Ben Eliezer’s schtick, the boys were back in town and it showed on the ground with some tangible results. A spirit of resolve was imbued in the Israeli public and they made us Diaspora Jews very proud, it’s not a small matter. Of course not all the credit is laid at Mofaz’ feet, but he did a good job. While everyone wonders how to handle Kassams, Mofaz calls and spurs the IDF on daily, ratchet up the pressure is his command, and if it doesn’t work he’ll find something that will. These are admirable qualities, this is defense after all.

Mofaz was part and parcel, to Sharon’s unknown in detail, vision. 

When Sharon recently created Kadima, Mofaz was hesitant at first to make the move from the Likud. But it says much, very much indeed that Sharon wanted Mofaz with him. He again extended his hand to Mofaz, and again Mofaz grasped it and joined Kadima.

Olmert is stated as being committed to this vision. Posters not of himself, but of Sharon were plastered across Israel and labelled Kadima, how is it that Olmert is putting the Fox out? Is this Sharon’s vision? To placate Labor’s unearned ego by sacrificing Mofaz.. I don’t think so myself, and for what?

Part II

Citizen Ministers are fine, this is not the issue

Much talk in Israel about the debate between citizen Defense Minister, or former General. Irrelevant it is said, both are fine, Moshe Arens himself an excellent citizen as Defense Minister poignantly explained on Israeli News that it is the man that is important, his experience, his judgement, his ability, not whether he is a civilian or a general. He stated that the job is one of the most difficult & critical in all the land.

Amir Peretz is no doubt a good man, committed to an Israel of his own personal vision, anyone who doubts this is a fool. To vie for the leadership of Israel is devotion of a magnitude that deserves high praise. But it does not NOT make him a good choice for Defense Minister.

He doesn’t have a shred of the experience, his views are widely known as a social champion of Labor, this has NOTHING to do with the IDF, nothing to do with defending Israel from external threats in any way. He has no familiarity with the tools, assets, and strategies of defense. He’s a union man, one whom is incidentally practically prepared to dialogue with Hamas, who are sworn to Israel’s destruction. Those skills are not what I would consider top on the list for this ministry.

The Defense of Israel, or Amir’s ego?

Haaretz: Mofaz, who had to call Peretz yesterday morning to deny having anything to do with reports quoting the minister’s "associates" saying it would be irresponsible to make the Labor head minister of defense. Mofaz’s office issued a statement expressing his respect for Peretz and his conviction that he would discharge his duties faithfully. [...]

Labor, desperately trying to position their socialist man of the hour as the next leader of Israel and build him up in light of the election results and his obvious experience shortcomings, see no red lines as being uncrossable. The misgivings shooting across Israel are not Mofaz’ misgivings, they are the misgivings of all, including Labor voters themselves. Amir is not particularly qualified for the task. It is not just irresponsible, it is grossly irresponsible.

The Labor bumblings, led by Amir himself this past week showed just how resolute Peretz is, resolute to do anything that’s good for Amir many would say, including making a farce of his own voters, including marginalizing Israel’s electorate at large to accommodate labor, including what can only be termed sheer folly. Folly that left even Israel’s most experienced analysts dazed and confused. Even Meretz, practically supporters of the Pan Islamic Caliphate were shocked at the goings on.

Whether by strategy or plain megalomania, either way the showing is poor.

If Amir was employing strategy as some have suggested in his recent ‘coup d’etat’ move to steal the government, it speaks volumes to his lack of Sun Tzu abilities. Hardly the guy as first choice you want helping direct Israeli military strategy by any measure I would argue.

If he was merely acting as a megalomaniac gone wild, then again these are not qualities befitting Defense Minister, any way Labor props it this is a non sell to rational people. You either want the best for the people of Israel as an ideology as claimed, or you do not. Fictionally praising Amir as a solid choice for Defense is not the best move for the People of Israel as I see it.

Iran, Hamas, rockets, nuclear weapons, a fragmented Government..

The threats are endless, it takes a real genius to break the flow now, to remove a 5 year term Minister who by every measure has performed with skill, and slap in a strike happy bureaucrat with no experience in these matters whatsoever. Only in Israel will you see this, its the politics, the self serving nature as exemplified above. The electorate? Not impressed, and with good reason.

Olmert, Amir.. Measure this and show some humility

Ynet Posts poll results: Globes-Smith poll conducted by pollster Rafi Smith.

While Labor Chairman Amir Peretz is still considering which senior portfolio he should take, 37 percent of the general public would like Shaul Mofaz to remain as defense minister, and only 8 percent prefer to see Peretz fill the job. Some 22 percent mentioned former Shin Bet Chief Ami Ayalon (Labor) and 16 percent mentioned former Shin Bet Chief Avi Dichter (Kadima).

Among Kadima voters, Mofaz has the strong support of more than 46 percent of respondents, while 28 percent prefer to see Ami Ayalon in the Defense Ministry and only 19 percent favor Avi Dichter. Not one of the respondents mentioned Peretz.

Among Labor supporters, Mofaz and Peretz received a similar level of support – 22 percent, while Ami Ayalon wins the battle on the defense portfolio with 40 percent.

The majority of the public (52 percent) believe that if Peretz accepts the defense portfolio he would be violating his promise to handle social-economic issues, but 60 percent of Labor voters agree with the claim that he would be able to deal with these issues also as defense minister and that it would not constitute a violation of his promise to the voters.

I don’t know how this long story ends (apologies), but I know that the public did not vote Amir Peretz PM, they did not mandate Amir Peretz to Finance Minister, and they most certainly do not support him in Defense. Why Labor insists on making it seem so eludes me.

Find some other way to placate Labor’s gigantic and totally unwarranted ego. "We’re major players, we’re senior partners", you’re a bunch of self serving Poopy Heads is what you are (I stole this poopy thing), with 19 silly little mandates in the most fractured mess of a government seen in a long time. Olmert has shown some humility of sorts recently, embracing Labor as a partner despite their recent idiocy, where’s the return? Mofaz has polled with 37% of the public in support, it’s the most consensus the country has seen in a long time.

Tags: Israel, Politics, Defense, Military

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Survey says: X

I was watching Channel 1 programming from Israel last night, coalition talk. I still maintain Olmert is best served not just using other parties as leverage, but actually going the distance. Labor and Meretz, big players in their own deluded power play are suggesting they should build a coalition of the left and form a Government led by Amir Peretz, all as leverage of course. Good luck!

Meretz MK Haim Oron said Friday that his party will not sit in a coalition with Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu or National Union-NRP.

Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is leaning toward bringing Avgidor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu into the coalition instead of Shas. Olmert said Thursday in conversation behind closed doors that despite Lieberman’s opposition to withdraw from the territories, he seems to be a convenient partner, reliable and easier than Eli Yishai of Shas.

Meretz decided at a meeting Thursday to recommend to the president that Peretz form the coalition said Ran Cohen, appointed chairman of the party’s negotiating team. Cohen said Meretz’s condition was that Peretz would not enter a coalition with the three parties.

Meretz basically claims they won’t sit in a Govt composed of nearly everyone, but Mahmoud Abbas himself.. All part of the so called Social revolution the left were talking about BEFORE the election, and that hasn’t actually manifested itself IN the election, yet remains their key strategy AFTER the election. You don’t want to sit quietly, you are spolied treasonous children? Sayanara. 

I have one question.

Where are the votes?..
Meretz didn’t budge, Labor didn’t budge.. The Pensioners got 7 seats, seats that are being largely classified as throw away votes (no disrespect to our elderly intended). I’m still struggling to see where the revolution took place!?

A Haaretz columnist I corresponded with yesterday suggested to me via email that Labor’s 20 votes are an entirely DIFFERENT 20 votes than last time.. HUH!? (I’m not posting the exchange, it was private not a public interview for my blog, but here’s a single line for the concept)

"The labor electorate of 2006 is a very different one from the voters who chose Labor last time"

If that is the case, I am left bemused wondering where did the 20 Labor mandates from last election go if these are all new? Kadima? I don’t think so, neither does the Likud or anyone else grounded in reality. Please, stop selling dreams in the paper & on TV. Israel, those that are near and dear to you beseech some economic reality. I don’t want to move to Russia, but to Ziyon.

Israel TV News beats Survivor any day of the week

The vivacious Ayala Hasson on Channel 1 spoke candidly about Kadima, Labor, and Likud, including talk of Kadima rapprochement with Likud. Also being openly discussed as linked above is Olmert and talk of Israel At Home. Sure it’s all positioning, but if Olmert is savyy he’ll make his own positioning stick, not Meretz’ or Labor’s. Dalia Itzik (now of Kadima) was in the house and she was candid about Olmert intent on building bridges, whatever river they may cross including the Likud and the right.

Labor is going to come crawling to the coalition no matter what, go for it Olmert, squeeze them like a cherry tomato. Finance, nyet, Mofaz & defense nyet, Tzipi’s spot, nyet.. Nyet Nyet.. Lieberman Da! There are more than enough mandates for you to put your Government together. Stop paying for dreams on Israel’s dime is how I feel about it. Beilin, go fly a kite, let Amir organize a strike until the rest of Labor realizes they better get back into the Govt if they want to work.

Ministers & portfolios

My buddy was looking at portfolio breakdowns, out of 25 likely Ministers he had kadima with 10, and labor with 7.. Broken down according to vote percentages, very egalitarian, but I say this isn’t Russia, it’s Israel and Olmert can give them 5 or zero and see where it takes him, I bet quite far. If you want to consolidate? Then it’s not only pensioners and Laborites that have so called claims to compensation, but our friends and equal citizens across the green line, and I’m not talking about Jenin. Better start saving now..

Please, no more dreams, start dealing in realities. If the left and Labor want out of the territories and are buddy buddy with the center to get it, someone should explain to them there’s a high price to be paid. The so called fat wallets the Left are eluding Israel’s government has for them, should be the first prime target. Only a deluded Laborite wants to eat his cake and have it too.

Who’s going to pay the bill for all these delusions?

In the end, nothing is more amusing to me than seeing left wingers trying to play hardball, you know what it usually gets you? A strike out. The right are the guys with the big bats, always have been and always will be. Olmert isn’t biting, if there’s one thing he picked up from Sharon I’d wager it’s baseball and Amir smarten up now because otherwise you don’t stand a chance, no matter how hard you close your eyes and dream*

(* Globe and Mail on the Labor revolution that never was, and the televised speech in Beit Shemesh that amused me to no end)

Tags: Israel, Elections, Coalition, Left Wing, Politics

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Kadima 29 (+1)
Shas 12 (-1)
Likud 12 (+1)
Israel Home 11 (-1)
Meretz 5 (+1)
Arab Ram Taal  3 (-1)

Not dramatic movement.. But some adjustment.
Also, I saw a headline stating that Israel Elections committee suspects double voting for some Arab parties. We’ll see what happens there.

Tags: Elections, Israel

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I’ve been trying to get a handle on the dizzying coalition brow beating going on in Israel, here are some observations.

Hot Air  – The Social Block

Yesterday’s big talk was of a "Social Bloc". Apparently Shas, Labor, Meretz  & the pensioners were well into forming an alliance to strengthen their position towards Kadima and secure social issues in a coalition. This was floated by Labor senior party members.

Reality  – There is no Social Block

Digging a bit deeper I’m seeing this is fabricated nonsense.

Pensioners: Labor lying about forming ‘social bloc’
[...] Sources in Labor said earlier Wednesday that the party had initiated contacts with both the Pensioners and the ultra-Orthodox Shas in an attempt to put together a 40-seat bloc whose key concerns were social issues. But Pensioners party chief Rafi Eitan said Wednesday that Labor had no been in touch with him on the issue, nor had he heard of the initiative. He also expressed doubts that such a move would strengthen the Pensioners’ position.

Party chairman and No. 3 on the party’s list, Moshe Sharoni, fiercely criticized Labor over the matter.
"Shelly Yachimovich is lying," said Sharoni. "There have not been nor will there be contacts with Rafi [Eitan], or with [Pensioners' No. 2] Yaakov Ben-Yizri. They haven’t spoken to any of us. What did Shelly think, that she is running the news on television? They are making things up." – haaretz

Hot Air  – Kadima ready to give up one of the Big Three, Labor / Meretz / Shas / Kadima coalition a given.

This has been played up heavy in the media as well. That block is worth 65 seats, enough to form a majority. It is also the left wing wet dream, one under which they intend to spin / spend like dervishes, and repeal all the economic and social changes Israel has painfully implemented to bolster the Israeli economy and modernize the State. Labor stated they are intent on either the Finance portfolio, the Defense portfolio, or the Foreign Ministry because they are ‘major players’ in the coalition, they really want the Finance portfolio in order to spend spend spend and Peretz labor leader wants a budget veto if he can’t have finance.

Reality  – Olmert: Finance is not on the table, Defense is not on the table, Foreign Ministry is not on the table.

Those three portfolios make up the Kadima big 3 of Olmert, Livni, & Mofaz. While much can be said of the givens being played up in the media, today’s news has talk of Israel at Home considering entering coalition talks, and Olmert is not ruling out any Zionist parties that are willing to work unilaterally.

Sheetrit said Wednesday that it would be possible to form a government without Labor, and did not rule out the possibility of incorporating Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu into the coalition. He noted, however, that right-wing governments oppose Olmert’s plan for unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank, giving them a slim chance of being invited into the government. - Haaretz

That being Meir Sheetrit, a senior Kadima member. As for Lieberman himself, here’s his take on the possibility of entering the coalition.

For all the left spin, Shas, UTJ both the two major religious parties are seemingly on Olmert’s radar, as are the pensioners and talks with Israel at home. That’s 65 mandates without labor or Meretz.

It’s more likely Labor will be in the coalition, but this nonsense that there aren’t options or that things are a given, or further that Kadima must go totaly left of center is just that, nonsense, a lot of hot air. Kadima can just as easily stay closer to the center right. Israel at Home leader Lieberman wants to talk security, and crime, Labor wants to talk running up deficits and Socialism, neither supports unilateral withdrawal at this time, I know which I’d prefer, I’d bet Olmert feels the same way.

Just like here in North America, it seems apparent to me that the Israeli Media has a soft spot agenda, and has been spinning leftward so fast throughout this election the tires are practically smoking. The spin originates in the parties themselves of course, but I’ve seen it carried to great heights by the media when the message is left, left, left right left.

Tags: Israel, Elections, Media

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