War On Terror: Americans not prepared to blink in the face of Radical Islamic Aggression

Americans polled share more than common values with Israeli brethren, they share serious and relatively unwavering concern regarding the Iranian nuclear threat, the majority are prepared to back Israeli allies if diplomacy stalls, or even launch American based strikes. (JPOST)

This is the kind of thing that will put wind in your sails when you are a little country surrounded by missiles, terrorists, Jihadists and now potentially cataclysmic WMD threats. Americans polled overwhelmingly viewed Iran as a serious threat to the United States of America, to the tune of 87% - Those kind of bi-partisan numbers stateside are unheard of in this age, perhaps leaving only Ron Paul supporters and far left wing quacks out of the general mix.

Prepared to do something about it too..

On the topic of taking action should diplomacy stall, again a majority of Americans polled are prepared to go the distance with 63% supporting Israeli strikes, and 55% supporting US and allied strikes if required. A whopping 80% of Americans in the poll felt that should Iran obtain nuclear weapons they would likely use them, no doubt the weekly calls for the destruction of Israel, and the chants of ‘Death to America’ have sunk into the general American public.

The threat of Iran is apparently felt across the political spectrum, with 85% of Democrats and 97% of Republicans believing the Islamic Republic represents a serious threat to the US.

Everything is just cheeky in the UK..

Germans & Brits were also polled. Germany with a historical moral obligation towards the Jewish people showed strongly unfavorable views of Iran at 64%, but our pals in Londonistan it seems only mustered 39% unfavorable views of the Islamic Republic, meaning the vast majority of Brits are prepared to go full on Dhimmi it seems. Pretty scary numbers coming out of the UK in light of the bombing & killing of Brit boys in Iraq by Iranian backed extremists, statements by top ranking UK military officials that they are fighting Iran, and a boatload of UK sailors including a young woman having been abducted at gunpoint on the high seas, and held hostage by the Iranians!?

At the end of the day, ask any US soldier in Iraq, family member of the military etc how much moral support means to them in the general public, and you can divine the powerful effect such support from allies can have for an embattled people and State such as Israel.

Update: Yossi Melman, leftist but highly respected by me analyst writes a heavy article on the Obama / Biden ticket, also looking at the popular Michael Rubin article of a few days ago..

[...] If the Obama-Biden team is elected, the combination of the new president’s inexperience in foreign policy and his vice president’s positions and record do not auger well for Israeli’s foreign and security policy, which is trying to persuade the U.S. administration that a tough policy toward Iran must be pursued - increasing the sanctions on Iran and, if necessary, as a last resort, attacking its nuclear installations.

Check it out! If Melman (bless him) is wary about the Obama / Biden ticket it means the rest of us need to run for the hills.

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Daled Amos posted recently about the tanker kerkuffle, touching on a haaretz article which tied recent denied Israeli weapons procurement requests to re-fueling tankers and a possible Iran strike.

In reaction to an article in Haaretz that the US has refused to give Israel the kind of refueling aircraft that Israel might use as part of an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, David Hazony suggests:

From the Bush administration’s perspective, there is no greater threat to American security than an Obama victory, and an attack on Iran really does carry risks of “instability” that could ricochet back against McCain.
So from an Israeli perspective: are they confident enough of a McCain victory to wait and test his pro-Israel campaign rhetoric–or are they still afraid that despite Obama’s current problems he will still be the next president and therefore cannot wait.

Bottom line: which candidate is more likely to supply Israel with the arms she thinks she needs in the current situation–McCain or Obama.

What do you think?

UPDATE: Israel apparently already has one such plane, and is apparently working on a project (The “Green Salad” — scroll down) for integrating a second one in 2009.

Faster, please.

He of course threw in the what do you think tag lol, irresistible really since I don’t think this story is as clear cut as the small initial Haaretz article suggests.

I posted myself about denied procurement requests and looked at the F22 & advanced JDAMS, those two pieces of hardware would really make the difference and they are the stuff of lustful legend for procurement from the US.. These were the hardware pieces in deep discussions when Bush visited in May. But aside from that, multiple hardware pieces are in procurement plans so that in itself does not preclude tankers or the article’s assertion.

It may very well be that tankers were part of discussions, but is it tied to Iran? and what is the McCain link?

On the question of is this the hardware that if denied can prevent a strike and halt Israeli plans, the answer seems to point to no. Israel has 7+ large tankers. The Haaretz article talks about them being 40 years old, but this is the same fleet the US is flying and their tankers are also old. That is enough tankers to get the job done. Would more be better, surely they would especially if tankers are targeted in operations. But, and it is a big but.. Any new procurement of 767s for tanker purposes would likely not be ready or aloft anywhere near the proper time frames for an Israeli strike, these beasts would need to be built first and Italy & Japan are themselves in line picking up 8 total, 6 are not even in assembly. I don’t think this is Iran related as much as it is internal US politics related, and this is where the McCain link comes in.

A significant reason for tanker denials?

The US is currently studying revamping its own tanker fleet. Actually, that is understating things a bit. There’s been a multi-year ongoing scandal regarding these tankers stateside for US use and McCain is smack in the middle of it.

To be brief what is going on is a war between Boeing, Northrop the providers, and an internal struggle at the Pentagon and US legislative halls for where to invest billions for the tankers, at home or abroad, and further which manufacturer can provide a better plane for US armed forces use. At question has been contract awarding practices and the ping pong ball has been batted back & forth wildly, McCain is holding a paddle and a very visible position.(this story is too big to link to generally, here’s one recently from the FT on the situation, )

It seems much more likely that part of the multi-year plan in Israel involves tankers, perhaps tankers have been discussed maybe even denied at this time, but this is much more likely to do with the fact that the USA needs to resolve its tanker issues first, commit and procure before the added politics of selling disputed tankers to say Israel is added to the mix as this would certainly sway things that are already very delicate. As DA mentioned, Israel is currently in its own tanker conversion plan and this effort is fairly longstanding and is budget based. So Israel is looking to expand tanker abilities, but has already been working on this front beyond a large purchase of new aircraft. The US issues will likely be decided once Bush is out of office, further reason to not announce tankers sales right now.

Better put this one out first..

Further, the notion that Israel will have waited until August 2008 to procure tankers needed for a strike on Iran is somewhat crazy talk, because it would take the biggest mistake in military procurement history to rely on plans, fly actual test runs involving hundreds of aircraft (already tanking over the med) and generally prepare only to realize a few months later that you don’t have tankers..

McCain may be involved, Israel may be looking for tankers going forward, the Pentagon may have denied a request at this time more generally, but making this about Iran seems to be overlooking the much more obvious in the USA, the illogical and unadvised idea of throwing Israeli fuel on the already large US tanker fire which has the GOP presidential nominee intimately involved, worse he’s backing the Northrop deal and Israel likely would have picked up Boeings, that is reason enough right there to delay tanker talks.

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Yesterday’s Aluf Benn Haaretz article caused some waves online

It was a two parter. Benn himself it should be noted is a lefty, but competent generally in military matters which is his domain as one of Haaretz’ correspondents.

One part was highlighting ISIS propaganda regarding how a strike on Iran is destined to fail. This is a non starter for me, because one of the chief authors of the ISIS think tank report is Jaqueline Shire. She’s a former State Dept cheerleader, and a graduate of the ‘Columbia Middle East program of Israel hard knocks’.. The most anti Israel University program in the USA which makes little secret of its hatred of a strong Zionist state. Shire is one of those lefty experts who walks around denying Israel’s capitol is Jerusalem and touting the virtues of pacifism.

There is only a diplomatic approach for this school of thought, (one destined itself likely to fail in my opinion) while force is itself illegitimate. Accordingly in my thought process the ISIS think tank report is also fairly illegitimate because it is also agenda driven.. But enough wasting time about that, let’s talk about the weapons!

The other part of Aluf Benn’s article was on how the USA is trying to squish any IDF strike plans..

The American administration has rejected an Israeli request for military equipment and support that would improve Israel’s ability to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.

A report published last week by the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) states that military strikes are unlikely to destroy Iran’s centrifuge program for enriching uranium.

The Americans viewed the request, which was transmitted (and rejected) at the highest level, as a sign that Israel is in the advanced stages of preparations to attack Iran. They therefore warned Israel against attacking, saying such a strike would undermine American interests. They also demanded that Israel give them prior notice if it nevertheless decided to strike Iran.

As compensation for the requests it rejected, Washington offered to improve Israel’s defenses against surface-to-surface missiles. Israel responded by saying it reserves the right to take whatever action it deems necessary if diplomatic efforts to halt Iran’s nuclearization fail. [...]

No mention is made of what systems were rejected. Thankfully I follow these things a little more than is healthy, and know which two big pieces of hardware were on the list and nixed by Mr. Gates. They consist of the F-22 radar evading air to air superiority fighter, and the latest most advanced US JDAM munitions. Israel at the time (Bush’s May visit to Israel) asked the US to consider providing the JDAMs in part because the US has A-OK’d a massive arms package to the Saudis, consisting of advanced satelite guided JDAMs, somewhat reckless for the unstable regime if you ask me - but they didn’t.

Georgia, Israel, Lebanon, Iraq (under the dems) - It’s not a good time to be allied with the USA led State Dept / Pentagon frankly

In order to maintain some military advantage we argued the latest most awesome JDAM should be offered to Israel for purchase.. Along with the F-22 which as I have written previously is cause for major lust here in Israel. What would these two pieces of hardware do? They would up a strike on Iran’s illicit nuclear weapons programs success factor substantially, in both accuracy and survivability for Israeli pilots. They aren’t absolutely essential, we can still do the job without them.. But Gates is dead set against an Iranian strike by anybody that much is clear.

Gates, would Obama keep him as Sec Def?

My own thoughts on him is that he has been somewhat weak, allowing Iran to run roughshod over the US in terms of the nuclear issue and the Iranian sponsored efforts to murder US soldiers in Iraq & Afghanistan. When he was appointed some said he is anti-Israel, but this is simply not true.. He is just a CIA guy, they have no cohones any more in the CIA, self confidence is lacking from a non stop string of high profile failures, while any successes are not profiled at all publicly. He’s, how do you say it? Demure.

When I read speculation from the American democrats (Hotair) that maybe Gates should be kept on in a new Obama administration, this spoke loudly. They seem him as anti force, don’t get me wrong he seems like a nice guy.. But in military matters and many things nice guys often finish last. In any case, it appears that American assistance to Israel to defend against Iran pre-emptively is very very limited, they will help perhaps when the missiles come flying at us - This is appreciated, but less than ideal. Soft power makes for nice books on Amazon.com, here we are dealing with harder realities.

Soft Power? US Specialty lately..

This soft power fetish speaks loudly to how out of step Gates & Rice have been with Bush doctrine, as a neo-con I am somewhat reviled. This tread lightly program has yet to show much success, the Surge is a glorious success but it heralds the exact opposite, a go out & get it done mentality and action. When I think surge I think Hooah! Frankly overall, American policy has been getting stepped on all over this 2nd Bush term. Even when the Iranians made mock speed boat suicide attacks on US Warships, not even warning shots were fired in the air. Kind of weak, with a capital Dubya.

So Israel has received a much larger warning shot from the US than Iran has, it has come in the form of denial of military assistance to carry out a strike against an existential threat. We don’t often listen to warnings here in Israel. We will likely advise the Pentagon if we strike, but I doubt we will get much assistance. Rice & Gates will try to deter us as hard as they try to deter Iran - that is also working marvelously. Rice after all stood firm to stop Israel from striking the Syrian / Iranian / NoKo nuclear program, it’s a good thing we didn’t take her advice then either.

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FROM THE AWESOME FILES:
Stop selling Iran weapons, or we will embarrass you internationally, show the world you can be rendered defenseless.

The S-300 threatens to complicate Israel’s strike options. The weapons system sold to Iran but not yet believed delivered (pls see posts below for details) is one of the world’s most advanced, and is the primary Russian defensive Anti Air weapon, these batteries ring military installations and even Moscow itself. Iran is hot to trot to get them, believing that they can up their own deterrent factor by making a strike against the Iranian illicit nuclear program all the more difficult.

The US & Israel adamantly oppose the Russian weapons sales, to push home the point it seems Israel has now upped the ante itself, threatening to use in development technologies to show the world the Russian systems can be shut off like a light switch, leaving Russia essentially naked to air attack, and severely compromising the Russian multi billion dollar arms industry in one go.

JPOST Israel warns Russia: We’ll neutralize S-300 if sold to Iran.

If Russia goes through with the sale of its most advanced anti-aircraft missile system to Iran, Israel will use an electronic warfare device now under development to neutralize it and as a result present Russia as vulnerable to air infiltrations, a top defense official has told The Jerusalem Post.

While Russia has denied that it sold the system to Iran, Teheran claimed last year that Moscow was preparing to equip the Islamic Republic with S-300 systems. Iran already has TOR-M1 surface-to-air missiles from Russia.

Mixed media reports have emerged recently regarding the possible delivery of the system to Iran. Two weeks ago Reuters quoted a senior Israeli official who said the system would be delivered to Iran by the end of the year. In response, the Pentagon released a statement rejecting the assessment and saying that the US did not believe Iran would get it in 2008.

According to the Israeli defense official who spoke to the Post, “no one really knows yet if and when Iran will get the system.”

A top IAF officer also said this week that Israel needed to do “everything possible” to prevent the S-300 from reaching the region.

“Russia will have to think real hard before delivering this system to Iran, which is possibly on the brink of conflict with either Israel or the US, since if the system is delivered, an EW [electronic warfare] system will likely be developed to neutralize it, and if that happens it would be catastrophic not only for Iran but also for Russia,” the defense official said.

Neutralization of one of the main components of Russian air defense would be a blow to Russian national security as well as to defense exports. “No country will want to buy the system if it is proven to be ineffective,” the official said. “For these reasons, Russia may not deliver it in the end to Iran.”

In last September’s widely reported Syrian Nuclear Reactor strike, it is believed that the entire Russian supplied Syrian Air Defense Network was disabled by Israel electronically and totally neutralized. The Syrians never even knew IAF warplanes were in their airspace hitting targets deep in Syrian territory, near the Iraqi border. Israel & the United States are both on the cutting edge in electronic warfare, speculation at the time ranged from powerful jamming all the way to a computer virus introduced into the Russian systems.

These comments are not boasts by Israel.. At the time, within 24 hours Russian technicians were spot flown to the scene in Syria, to try & figure out how it was even possible for Israel to so undress the Russian systems, Iran reacted with visible alarm in the media at the apparent fallibility of their own multi-billion dollar Russian supplied Air Defense net, and with good reason.

For detailed information on the Russian weapons, the Syrian strike, and the Iranian connection to both please see the following posts here at the Hashmonean:

Arms Race II: From Russia with Love (aug 23 2007)
Detailing the S-300 capabilities & associated advanced weapons system being sold to Axis powers by Russia.

Classified: Everyone has their eye off the ball (sep 18, 2007)
Early speculation on Iran’s involvement with North Korea, building a nuclear reactor on Syrian territory to provide covert nuclear material to Iran. This has now been widely accepted as exactly what went on, by intelligence circles.

OPERA II?: North Korean nuclear materials given to Iran, Syria?
(sep 12, 2007) The initial breaking news on the strike.

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UPDATE Wed 13 Aug: Welcome Stumblers!
If you are here for your 1st visit, thanks for reading. Please consider a bookmark or grabbing the RSS feed link. Cheers, Saus..
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Europeans & Americans Simply Underestimate Israeli Public Resolve - A Critical Error.

It is the one issue where there is very little dissension, across the public spectrum, across the military spectrum, across the intelligence spectrum, and of course the political spectrum there is almost no dissension, no wavering, at every level complete willingness to pay the price because there is NO alternative. An Iranian nuclear weapon is totally unacceptable in Israel.

In the US & in the EU there are dreamers who like to bandy about notions like ‘living with the Iranian bomb’, they come up with concepts like deterrent & MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction), they talk about diplomacy as if it itself is the ends not the means. Endless time, what fools these people are because they are clearly totally removed from the realities of the situation.

Mistaking a last resort for no resort

Somehow, because Israel is open to pursuing diplomacy as an option in the interim, people interpret this as an unwillingness to strike. They speak of bluffs, they postulate about green lights, they convince themselves that Israel cannot totally eliminate the Iranian program, make absurd claims like ‘a strike would only delay Iran 2 months’, they project their own hopes & dreams onto Israel with frankly very limited understanding of the realities here.

These are the facts:

• At a certain point, regardless of progress on any front, regardless who, what where, regardless of the White House, the Press, if Israel ascertains that Iran has progressed to a specific level, Israel WILL strike. Period.
   
• Israel is more than capable of striking, procured the weapons for strikes long ago and has been preparing for this last resort measure for YEARS.
   
• Israel has plans for strikes, has the intelligence for strikes, has trained for strikes, prepared the public for strikes, and even shared these realities publicly with the entire world.

Living in Denial

One wonders at what point exactly do all these facts collectively absorb in the rest of the planet’s consciousness. Every single politician in Israel is on record multiple times stating matter of factly these are the realities. The Pentagon has stated it believes this to be the reality, Sec. Rice has stated she believes this to be the reality, President Bush has stated he believes this to be the reality, Sarkozy has stated the same, McCain concurs, Merkel in Germany agrees, even the dove Senator Obama has stated this is his ‘feeling’.. Ask yourself, who is correct here? Mother Jones or all these world leaders?

Not only is it reality, it is now the driving force in Israel’s upcoming political season

Olmert is prepared to strike Iran’s programs, so are all his replacements. Livni, Mofaz, Sheetrit, as is the entire opposition, Likud, Israel Our Home, as is the left wing Labor party under Ehud Barak, Israel’s Defense Minister. There is not a single dissention, the IDF is training and preparing for all fronts likely to erupt should this last resort materialize. To bring home the gravity of this reality, drive home the total unflinching resolve.. One needs only examine the surrounding issues pertainig to a strike.

If diplomacy does not ratchet up spectacularly soon, Israel is preparing to go to war with Hamas, Hezbollah, Lebanon, Syria & Iran SIMULTANEOUSLY if necessary. Not theoretical preparations, missile tests, brigade & battalion sized training operations, large scale aerial training, tanks and ground warfare exercizes. One can choose to bury one’s head in the sand, but that will not alter the reality above ground.

Diplomacy

Faith is declining in Israel, few now believe the sanctions will ever be serious enough. The EU exports to Iran grow, Russia arms Syria & Iran and obsfucates against the west, the few remaining months of 2008 are all that is left for the diplomatic option. Afterwords, only one thing is certain. No matter what borders need to be violated, no matter who’s airspace, irrespective of territorial waters.. The regional superpower will be striking. I have even worse news for the naysayers, the USA will be notified, as will gulf allies, and all will quietly watch as these strikes play out, some of these powers themselves will even get their licks in too.

Links: The Iran Focus Roundup.
WSJ: Tehran program gains influence in Israel’s election
Reuters: EU exports to Iran rising despite sanctions
Iran Focus: Iran gearing up for confrontation
CNN: Officials: Iran offers ‘non-answer’ to incentives
YNET: Rice: US won’t tell Israel yes or no
JPOST: ‘2 US aircraft carriers headed for Gulf’
Haaretz: Israel warns Hezbollah: We won’t tolerate arms smuggling

Coming up here at the Hashmonean, Arms Race IV:
Defending against the massive missile barrage that would result from a strike on Iran’s nuclear programs.

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IAF Opts for Ultra Sexy ‘J Model’ Hercules to upgrade the workhorse fleet

Via JPOST, the US Congress has been notified of an impending sale to the IAF seeking approval. I speculated last year about Israel’s procurement plans involving the Hercules, and shortly thereafter the multi-year TEFEN procurement plan was released. So far, Tefen appears on track with upgraded US Patriot PAC3 batteries, equally a new round of funding appears to have been agreed upon for upgrades to the Arrow2 ABM, and now news of the transport component for TEFEN involving the J Model Hercules. Much of this would have been sealed up with Israeli Defense Minister Barak spending time at the Pentagon this past week, preceded by IDF Chief Gen Ashkenazi the week before.

Actually, at the time personally I thought Israel would be picking up the slightly older H model of the US Air Force’s most venerable workhorse, my thinking was the IAF might opt for some slightly used transports since ours are already so old any how, and the new totally re-worked J Model is in very hot demand.. We may have bumped a few customers if this order is approved, these Js are very slick comprising some tasty electronics & high tech gear, and could end up costing nearly 2 billion, hoooah! So this is not your father’s olds.. er I mean troop transport.

‘Feel like making War’

A highlight of TEFEN was the re-emphasis on full warfare capabilities in hardware pickups, as opposed to massive emphasis on just killing terrorists over the last decade. Stuff like this will come in very handy indeed if we are forced to invade & conquer places like Lebanon, or our ‘Peace Partners’ the Syrians in the next few years. Maybe they will let us keep the Golan in exchange for giving them back Damascus. if it’s Land for Peace, I advocate first securing even more land, that way we can get even more peace!!! I always knew I was a lefty at heart..

Meanwhile between ABM, Transports, and J35s.. Lockheed is becoming a one stop shop for Israeli purchases, Israel’s top notch RAFAEL defense industries is also working closely with the company on all sorts of goodies, I love it.. Maybe we can convince them to roll a few more F-22s onto the assembly line for us, no one has to know - they evade radar after all

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Israel must go ‘all in’ & restore deterrence

It is now accepted as inevitable, a large scale operation in the Gaza strip to end the terror threat emanating from Gazastan 24/7. Even internationally little can be said, we are a democratic country with a terror operated mini state lobbing missiles at our civilian populace with no end, if the peace process is to go forward the government in Israel has no choice but to tackle the hornets nest. The failures leading up to now are numerous.

• Withdrawal from Gaza promised the harshest response possible to terror threats emanating from vacated territory. That never happened.
   
• Rice & the EU assured us that ceding border control at the Philadelphia corridor linking Egypt, Gaza & Israel would be a stepping stone to peace & security. We got neither, and Hamas is now armed to the teeth with a standing army thanks to the collapse of the EU initiative resulting in rampant arms smuggling, the lack of speedy response from Rice & the US, the faltering ally in Egypt and our government’s foolhardy fold to the initial pressure.
   
• Hamas being allowed to run for PA elections despite being a recognized terrorist group, only to win further weakening the overall global US strategy for the region & Israel specifically by acquiescing to this ludicrous notion.
   
• Hamas seizing the Gaza strip by force and setting up a mini terror state with nary a reaction by the world and shamefully muted reaction by the Israeli govt. compounded by an increase in violence & terrorism.
   
• The kidnapping of IDF soldiers in terrorist assaults, and subsequently years of manipulation by the same terrorists holding his life in the balance. This is well below the norms of accepted humanity yet the UN, NGOs, and public opinion seem resolute as ever to declare Israel the war criminal.

A clear path of support linking Hamas, Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah has materialized and the planet in a supposed global War on Terror has not even bat an eye. This web extends all the way into Lebanon and Iraq and further through the Revolutionary Guards all the way even into Afghanistan bridging towards Al Qaeda - these regions making up the main battlefield in the war against Islamist Jihad. Despite the global pitch to deny sanctuary & national territory to terrorists, seemingly in Gaza this is a supported goal internationally.

These realities are a failure on Israel’s part by orders of magnitude..

Lebanon’s long shadow

The political failures above are the domain of the government, the IDF & security establishment can make an argument that they warned every step of the way. Unfortunately, political missteps also led to the employment of the IDF in Lebanon on a large scale and the results were lackluster. A serious blow was dealt to the IDF and Israel’s deterrence by stagnation on the battlefield. We have been assured that our military has taken these issues to heart, reformed itself of its lack of vision, begun investment in its equipment and infrastructure in the tefen plan, replaced key personnel and philosophies with lessons learned, and renewed its desire to regain a perch amongst the most capable in the world.

A key component of Israel’s lack of gusto in Lebanon vs Hezbollah was our apparent lack of deftness and agility, combined with an equally lacking ability to employ heavy force in strategic spots and chalk up gains which could be built on for momentum. Both the political & military echelon appeared hesitant to employ strong tactics and commit to getting whatever the job be, done.

You bastards..

Already we have seen the reforms in action regarding deftness and agility through the combined us of intelligence and force - Skillfully I would add, through high risk / high payoff operations designed to further national security policy while also providing the spin-off benefit of restoring deterrence.

• IDF soldiers driving donkey parts deep into Hamas territory and smuggling out Hamas terrorists for interrogation comes to mind.
   
• The veil of silence and skillful bombing of a dangerous target in Syria, something which garnered nearly zero condemnation incidentally. If anything.. Begrudging respect of the type not seen since Entebbe.
   
• The associated employment of high technologies in the manner expected by the IDF sending a loud & clear message with a huge payoff, the apparent knocking out of the entire Syrian air defense net to such an extent that Russian technicians were on the scene within 48 hours to investigate how such a feat were even possible, causing palpable alarm all the way into Iran with billions of dollars invested & at stake.
   
• The vast reduction in civilian collateral casualties through pin point accuracy employed by the IAF, I don’t recall the exact statistic but it is on the order of a 99% reduction in civilian losses through operations. No small investment or effort was made over the last few years to tune the machine to a level where this was possible. The payoff obviously being lives saved combined with some possible leeway in employing force as a matter of security, not too mention the resulting accuracy of force - as exhibited in Syria is of a calibre that sets a worldwide scale.
   
• The targeted elimination of Hezbollah chieftains deep in their protective territory is no small matter either, let alone the fact that such an individual be amongst the most hunted men on earth. This one is the slot machine that will keep on paying for a long time to come.

These examples of very special operations have gone a long way, but Gaza will be the test of mettle for the IDF. Gaza requires all the tools & skills above, combined with scale and regular more conventional forces. Gaza means dangerous contact in close quarters with a terrorist / guerrilla trained enemy built up in territory and capabilities, and Gaza requires a political / diplomatic component that is in itself complex. Israel and the IDF can ill afford any half efforts. All eyes are on this one, there is something to prove.

I’m looking at how the IDF can take Gaza, decapitate the Hamas leadership, quell the terrorist infrastructure, as well-as the necessary political dynamic in a second part to this post.

Link Update:
IDF chief: I can’t rule out conflict in near future (Haaretz)
Olmert: Israel’s deterrence well-known (Jpost)

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Second call for resolute defense in matter of days..

While Israel’s politicians dither and dally regarding Israel’s defense, the IDF cognizant of endless intelligence estimates of conflict all around is trying to prepare itself & Israel’s public for the inevitable clashes that await us. A few days ago Ashkenazi our head of the IDF mentioned the need to prepare the home-front, warning of the missile wars that are coming in the near future. He was referencing Israel’s endless sea of public & private “miklatim” or bomb shelters which in recent years have been neglected by both the state & its citizenry. Today he’s speaking of the painful casualties & sacrifice that are part and parcel in defending the State of Israel (YNET)

Tel Aviv & Beyond

With rockets striking the Negev areas in the south, Hezbollah missiles causing extensive damage in the North during the 2006 conflict, and foolhardy negotiations to allow terrorist staging areas in the West Bank by propping up a weak paper Abbas govt - the threats will clearly now reach to the very centers of Israel. Both Tel Aviv & Jerusalem are now within range of the masses of rockets our Chief of Staff is now openly warning us will come.

Gaza is an operation which is inevitable, Iran’s rising ambitions in the Levant combined with a nuclear weapons drive spells conflict with a capital ‘C’, Hezbollah has according to our defense estimates now tripled its missile arsenal to levels well beyond its capacities before the 2006 conflict, and worse the missiles are longer ranged & more sophisticated.

Gaza First

Ironic that in the endless merry go round of peace negotiations the term ‘Gaza First’ was a big buzzword utilized by Israel to lay out a road to peace, the peace test was Gaza first.. It failed with the result being Hamastan, now in the war test it will again be Gaza First, and our Chief of Staff has told us so, and to get ready both physically & mentally.

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Iranians Hail Shipment; Nuclear drive full steam ahead.

While we pretend everything is on track regarding the Iranian nuclear threat, the surreal just keeps on trucking. Russia is openly supplying fuel now to power the Bushehr reactor in Iran, a move actively supported by the USA & the EU. In theory this was the big carrot portion of the whole dialog, ‘negotiate carrot & stick policy’.. The big favorable deal was the world would supply Iran with supervised nuclear fuel, that way they would not have to produce their own which is the remaining major component of the fuel cycle remaining, allowing Iran to have all the pieces needed to weaponize a nuke.

Of course, the world has caved to Iran. Now they got their carrot but they have not stopped enriching uranium by any stretch of the imagination. They are laughing all the way home & congratulating themselves on having not only gotten their carrots, but having broken the big stick too! Israeli FM Livni was in Russia yesterday to gravely protest the delivery of fuel to Iran, she was livid. It is hard to explain the waves of shock going through our government right now as the realization dawns that we are going to have to deal with this threat alone, despite the strong statements of President Bush who sadly shares Israel’s deep concerns but is the Lone Ranger these days.

3rd fuel shipment reaches Bushehr plant (JPost)

Iran received a third shipment of nuclear fuel from Russia on Friday for a power plant being constructed in the southern Iranian port of Bushehr, state radio reported. The 11-ton consignment arrived at the Bushehr power plant on Friday morning, and the remainder of the remainder of the fuel will arrive in five separate shipments over the next months, the radio report said. [...]

Teheran heralded the first shipment as a victory, saying it proved its nuclear program was peaceful, not a cover for weapons development as claimed by the US and some of its allies. The US initially opposed Russian participation in building the Bushehr reactor and supplying it with fuel, but reversed its position about a year ago to obtain Moscow’s support for the first set of UN sanctions against Iran.

The United States and Russia have said the supply of nuclear fuel meant Iran had no need to continue its uranium enrichment program - a process that can provide fuel for a reactor or fissile material for a bomb. Iran has agreed with Russia to return the spent fuel to ensure it doesn’t extract plutonium to build a bomb. Iran insisted it would continue enriching uranium because it needed to provide fuel to a 300-megawatt light-water reactor it was building in the southwestern town of Darkhovin.

Iranian officials have said they plan to generate 20,000 megawatts of electricity through nuclear energy in the next two decades. Russia’s decision to begin shipping nuclear fuel to Iran followed a US intelligence report released earlier this month that concluded Tehran had stopped its nuclear weapons program in late 2003 and had not resumed it since. Iran says it never had a weapons program.

Multilateral failure

For all the big talk about the global world, the UN, the IAEA, inspections, negotiations, sanctions, dialog - Years of talk talk talk, all of it ’multilateral’ in nature, the big buzzword is total failure. Bushehr is coming online projected in summer 2008 fuelled by Russia with an American nod, while enrichment in Iran will not cease.

Does the current government in Israel have the steel will to defend this country, or do we dump them right now for elections and put an emergency war coalition in place instead? Further, how much longer will we wait to deal with Gaza, will we wait until we have to inconceivably face all three fronts at the same time? Gaza, Hezbollah, & Iran!?

Stop playing footsie - TAKE HAMAS OUT now. The alternative will be tying Israel’s hands when it will need to act versus Iran and that time is coming soon..

Link Update: Merkel trying to rally the team for ‘unity’ (IranFocus)

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