Deja Vu

Last week I was complaining about the JSF fighter, and asking if we had ’screwed the pooch’ on the planned purchase due to the fighters legendary problems.

JPOST now confirms that senior Israeli Air force officers are re-thinking the viability of our JSF plans due to the delays, and considering more F-15s as a more logical solution. That’s pretty much what I figured in last week’s post, and many others. Last week wasn’t the 1st time I’ve questioned this particular procurement piece..

In September 09 I wrote this..

Initially we were looking at 35-45 Million. Then it went to 50 Million. There was no shortage of shock when the figures jumped to 65 Million, this is when debate started to really heat up because well, the spiral was going upward out of control. In the USA the Pentagon itself was non too pleased either.

Then we started hearing 85 Million dollars per plane. I know my eyes popped out of my head – But 100 million for a stock variety JSF nulls one of the main JSF thrusts & selling points, it’s former afford-ability. At that rate Israel clearly cannot pick up the numbers previously envisioned. At higher rates it becomes questionable whether we can pick up any at all..

What’s a few Billion between friends?

The F35ii Lightning.. No telling when it will actually strike though.

Now we are learning the plane will cost over 135 Million in America, for US purposes.. and that’s before that number has frozen.

If you tack on Israeli requirements (still unresolved after 3 years of negotiation) we best figure minimum 150 Million, probably much closer to 200 Million. Hello! TOTALLY UNPROCURABLE for us in numbers we envisioned. We could buy twice as many F15s, which as JPOST says - are ready to get all the way to Iran.. loaded to the hilt.

In May 2009 I wrote the following while evaluating the new Boeing F15-SE as a contender to replace our JSF order..

25 additional F15-SEs could dovetail nicely into the established maintenance, training and equipment pipeline more quickly & cheaply. [...]  The F35 is late to the party and under dressed, the F15 Strike Eagle will have to do the job in the near term. In that case we should order more of them.

Earlier in May when the new F-15 was unveiled I was beefing about the JSF costs in a familiar refrain, comparing it to an equivalent F15 purchase instead..

In the long run the costs savings for Israel may be substantial, in training, maintenance, and upgrades to existing F-15 fleets.

Confirmation

I’m therefore less than shocked to read the excellent Yaakov Katz at JPOST pen the following yesterday..

Major delays in the production of the fifth-generation stealth F-35 Joint Strike Fighter will likely lead to the postponement of Israel’s procurement plans, which initially set the signing of a contract by the end of March.

One top IDF officer told The Jerusalem Post on Sunday that the Defense Ministry was unlikely to sign a letter of agreement (LOA) with the Pentagon before the end of 2010. “Everything now appears to be pushed off by at least a year,” the senior officer said.

On Sunday night, IDF Chief of General Staff Lt.-Gen. Gabi Ashkenazi flew to Washington for talks with top Pentagon officials. Ashkenazi plans to speak with his American counterpart, Adm. Michael Mullen, and other Pentagon officials about the delays in the production of the JSF and how it will affect the IDF. [...]

Nor does it surprise

That such a tale would continue along these lines..

Israel had planned to order a first squadron of 25 jets within the coming months and to procure another 50 by the end of the decade. Due to the delays, some IAF officers are calling for a review of the procurement plans and to consider the possible purchase of additional F-15Is made by Boeing Company. Israel already has a squadron of F-15Is that are capable of carrying massive amounts of weaponry and flying long distances, including to Iran.

“There is some thought in this direction,” a top IAF source said recently. “Based on the development requirements, the F-35 is supposed to be a more advanced plane primarily since it is stealth, but delays in the production have led to new thinking within the IAF.”

Ya think?

This whole contract has been bungled on every level. Back in America the plane is not ready, its costs have literally quadrupled from initial estimates. The Pentagon started playing games with Israel that are yet to be resolved, not allowing Israel access to key computers or the ability to install IAF electronics, weapons & systems. That really added insult to wallet injury. It’s a cluster fark A to Z thus far from every end.

It’s not only Israel either, our American friends & allies (Well if you consider the Brits allies lol) are taking it on the jaw with this weapons system too. Big mess, Lockheed we love you.. But what the hell is going on over there!?

Friends in high places

Another point of interest is the fact that our guys are talking F15I instead of F15SE. Could it be because we already know the Obama administration won’t sell us the new F15SE without making us jump through flaming hoops? Can’t be, American Jewish Democrats assure us this is the friendliest US administration EVAH!

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Maybe we can walk to Iran?

Israel is still negotiating the endless contract for the JSF fighter, who’s sky rocketing price & endless delays are now becoming the stuff of legends.

Via the Weekly Standard we visit Aviation Week where rumors now abound of what some are calling the JSF manufacturing disaster, the fighter is now years behind due to problems and delayed flight testing. We will never see it by the 2014 time frame envisioned, which itself is two years behind what Israel had initially projected..

If February was a bad news month for the Joint Strike Fighter, with the program boss fired, a 13-month delay in test and a two-year slip in Air Force initial operational capability, look out for March. A Government Accountability Office report is rolling down the tracks, along with a Selected Acquisition Report (SAR) which, as we told you in Defense Technology International a month ago, is almost certainly going to record a critical Nunn-McCurdy breach.

Meanwhile, the flight test program continues to log an all-time slow record. [...]

The Obama administration along with Sec Def Gates have nailed the F-22 coffin shut. Despite claims to the contrary and attempts to soft pedal the issue officially in Israel – Our arms purchases from the US are moving at a glacial pace. We still don’t have resolution regarding Apache Longbow attack helicopter upgrades which I maintained were frozen by the Obama administration along with access to several other platforms. It’s now been a year that we are negotiating for half a dozen chopper upgrades for a helicopter we already fly, can you say deep freeze?

All this JSF woe leaves Israel, not too mention US forces in a bit of a lurch. There’s no JSF any time soon, and interim replacement platforms are simply seemingly not even on the menu for Israel to look at (F-15SE). None of it bodes particularly well when one considers the chorus of voices ever rising that the JSF simply ain’t that great in the 1st place..

The fighter is, and has been, plagued by delays, cost overruns, spats with allies, all underscored by the fact that the JSF isn’t that great of a jet. The Russian PAK-FA, which took to the skies this month, is already purported to be a superior air-to-air platform — though it won’t be fully operational for a few years. Moscow has no problem exporting their best gear to second and third world nations, and the Russians take particular delight in providing nations hostile to U.S. interests with advanced weaponry. Considering that proclivity to sell to bad guys, we could be facing the PAK-FA in air-to-air combat in under a decade.

So will we be ready? The F-35’s long list of failures is opening up some critical planning issues, problems that could end up critically degrading America’s abilities to fight and win wars a few miles down the road. The Obama administration is taking a colossal risk in canceling the F-22 program and sticking all their eggs in the Joint Strike Fighter basket. [...]

Did we screw the pooch on this one?

Israel faces much of the same, only we are more boxed in. We don’t have the minimum allocation of F-22s the USA has in stock & on order before the program runs its course. We may be looking at a few decades where our new superiority fighter (If it is ever delivered) is seemingly inferior to what our enemies can buy on the open market. That would be disastrous. The Obama administration maintains its claim that Israel’s military superiority is a top priority, while selling everything we have to the Gulf like it is going out of style.. In parallel we are being limited on purchases, a perfect storm.

One day we might have to call in the Cavalry

Americans who dislike Israel often claim they don’t want America fighting our wars for us. To date that has never been the case, and haters have just been blowing off steam. Going forward however, if we can’t get our hands on the best tech with the ability to customize it to our needs – Precisely the scenario now unfolding with the JSF contract, that may very well change. A situation which is just as unacceptable to us as it is to America.

It is dangerous entrusting our security to others, and only more so entrusting it to President Obama – His priorities simply lie elsewhere. Unfortunately for us, we sleep in the bed the American voters made.

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Shades of Osirak – Operation Opera

June 7th, 1981 eight fully loaded F-16 fighter bombers successfully penetrated Iraqi airspace & delivered a knockout blow to Saddam Hussein’s Osirak nuclear reactor which was scheduled to come online shortly thereafter, obliterating it utterly. Operation Opera as it was known was meticulously planned for months, its success so astounding in every way it drew both harsh criticism but silent admiration for the tiny country of Israel the world over.

All this was made possible through a fateful turn of events.  The fighters, the first of their kind for the IAF recently delivered from the USA - had originally been destined for the Shah of Iran who had placed the order. The Islamic revolution in 1979 changed all that, they were offered to Israel for purchase instead..

Margin of Error

In order to make the flight, the then IAF 1st generation F16s required some modifications. Their takeoff weight for the mission was so great they stood the chance of perhaps not even being able to liftoff at all. In order to complete the mission the fighter bombers would be flying beyond their allocated bingo fuel allotment, perilously close to the point of being unable to return to base with zero room for error.

So tight in fact was the fuel allotment that IAF ground crews set a dangerous precedent for aviation missions, they moved fuel trucks onto the runways and topped off the F16 tanks with their engines running, mere moments before their pilots hit the afterburners to lift the heavy birds into the sky for their fateful mission.

Now JPOST is reporting in an exclusive that IAF pilots and their ground crews are training for rapid turnaround refueling & topping off tanks on runways once again..

In preparation for long-range missions and possible conflict with Iran, the Israel Air Force has expanded its training programs to include rapid refueling operations on runways.

It’s a dangerous practice since the aircraft’s engines are running while the fuel nozzle is still connected to the jets. The training is for both pilots and ground crews and it is being done to enable the aircraft to carry as much fuel as possible for long-range missions.

Fuel nozzles are traditionally disconnected from fighter aircraft while they are still parked in hangers and before they are rolled out to the runway, where they usually wait for several minutes before takeoff and while burning fuel. The new protocol includes keeping fuel trucks on the runway, having ground personnel reattach the nozzle and fuel the aircraft to the maximum fullness, disconnecting seconds before takeoff.

“We understand that many of our threats and challenges require us to develop a long-range capability,” one senior IAF officer explained. “Part of our preparation includes knowing how to fuel our aircraft so they can have as much fuel as possible.” [...]

Rapid turnaround

The IAF & ground crews already train for danger in routine fighter operations. Israel, unlike say the USA has more limited amounts of fighter aircraft that are tasked with multiple missions in combat operations. IAF fighters in war time are often tasked with rapid refueling & re-armament. Hitting targets, landing, being re-supplied and taxiing straight off the runway for new missions with little to no downtime to make up for lack of numbers & fighters in reserve. All this goes on in the heat off battle, much like an aircraft carrier might operate but on land.

The latest generation F-16I Sufa (Storm) seen here on take-off, is custom built for the IAF for expanded range (Credit - Nir)

Heroic efforts

Beyond the dangerous requirements of keeping any raid tasked fighters over supplied with fuel on the runways, Israel in any long range strike will need to be vigilant on four fronts with an eye toward escalation. Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria & Iran could stretch the IAF thin if hostilities flare.. Especially with so many aircraft tasked with a long range mission far from home. Pilots & ground crews are training for extraordinary circumstances, these are no doubt extraordinary times.

After the 1st Gulf War, in honor of the extraordinary achievements of Operation Opera, Dick Cheney presented Major General David Ivry (commander IAF) a satellite photograph of the destroyed Osirak reactor signed – “For General David Ivri, with thanks and appreciation for the outstanding job he did on the Iraqi Nuclear Program in 1981, which made our job much easier in Desert Storm.”

If Israel should need to act again, one wonders.. What exactly would Obama present Israel? His lack of foresight thus far fails to impress.

LINK: Dalem Amos blogs about Popular Mechanics, and Israel’s long range drone Eitan (Heron TP). A critical new piece of the long range puzzle.

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Venerable Hercules C-130 Transport & CH-53 Yasur possibly on the block?

So sayeth Haaretz, but I’m skeptical.

The air force has been debating the need to procure the V-22, an American-made transport aircraft capable of vertical take-off and landing. [...]

 A debate has been ongoing within the air force on whether to procure the aircraft, with the helicopter crews favoring the option because it would significantly improve their transport capabilities. The V-22 is capable of carrying similar loads to those carried by the CH-53 helicopter, which is currently in Israel Defense Forces use, but its speed, range and maximum altitude are double those of the helicopter. So the V-22 will enable commando and rescue operation at greater distances than those currently possible.

Opposing the V-22 option are senior air force officers, especially those in charge of procurement, who support buying more advanced CH-53 helicopters and C-130 turboprop aircraft to replace the aging fleets of existing transporters of the type.

The Osprey is a unique beast with unique capabilities.

Pluses already mentioned are range, speed & capacity greater than a chopper with similar V-TOL ability. However, the Osprey itself is massively controversial. The program was almost shelved numerous times in the US & was sickeningly over budget. The Osprey is also famously difficult to fly & prone to crash due to both hardware & pilot error, still a bit unproven. We’d have to retrain heavily for its use nor would it be particularly cheap.

Boeing's V-22 Osprey - Tilt Rotor has a checkered past, it's been grounded a few times & a few have met untimely ends due to pilot error.

C-130J SuperHercules - Modernized Monsters of which Congress was notified we likey!

Further, both the C-130 Hercules & the CH-53 choppers available going forward are, or have undergone monster overhauls in the USA & are state of the art. I reported on IAF procurement plans for the HERCS here, the IAF was planning to load some of them to the gills with Special Ops electronics – It’s not clear if those spec-ops ones are on the block if the Osprey were to arrive, but doubtful as the US Congress was already notified last year of the classic ‘impending sale to Israel’ line. Equally, some of the Yasur transport choppers in Israel are undergoing modernization programs designed to carry them well into the future as posted here.

Peas in a pod?

One primary bonus is that the IAF would be in line with the US, which is in many cases using the V-22 Osprey going forward for its own special-ops transport. Haaretz states the debate is ongoing, but the procurement officers prefer HERCS & Yasurs. If one were to wager, I’d say maybe we pick up a couple of V-22s for kicks.. But maintaining HERC supply lines, Yasur supply lines, pilot training & general infrastructure plus adding all new supplies training & infrastructure needs for V-22s seems like a classic army / air force clusterfark (pardon my military lingo).

CH-53D, otherwise known as the Yasur here in Israel can disgorge around 20 troops prepped for terrorist killing

Personally, I’ll believe it when I see one fly over my apartment or perhaps the beach – In both cases one can routinely see the occasional Yasur doing just that..

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Shocka! There appears to be “Daylight” between America & Israel on Iran

IDF Chief of Staff Ashkenazi was in Germany this week speaking at a Holocaust remembrance memorial, he gave an inspired speech. There are a number of reasons to examine the text;

1. Ashkenazi as head of the IDF is probably the 3rd most powerful man in Israel.
2. Ashkenazi is intensely popular, trusted & respected by an Israeli public which will support his judgment. 
3. Ashkenazi is intensely popular, trusted & respected by an IDF which will also support his judgment.

After reforming the IDF and coming off of what is widely regarded as a successful military regional war in Gaza, no one has more solid support in Israel today than Ashkenazi. On military matters he is even more trusted than the Defense Minister Ehud Barack, to which can be added the public’s respect for him which rivals that of Benjamin Netanyahu. In Israel, such superheros cut across post-partisan lines and appeal across the strata on a much more emotional level -  As the no-nonsense General, defender of Israel.

Chief of Staff General Ashkenazi in Germany has words for Israel's enemies. (Photo: IDF Press Office)

Poignant, not so veiled words

Ashkenazi fills the top General role and void left by the legendary Ariel Sharon himself. This status in Israel, and the sharp words in his German speech make for a heady mix..

“We will never look lightly upon those who scheme our demise, we will not deposit our security in the hands of foreigners and we will allow no one to control the future of the State of Israel,” he said during a ceremony held at the ill-famed Platform 17 in Berlin, from which many Jews left for concentration camps.

“Out of the silent steel plates on this platform rise the screams of our Jewish brothers, who were marched into the train cars, beaten and humiliated. Their screams echo until this very moment and they are the screams of Israel’s obligation and my own, as the man who stands at the head of its army. It is our obligation to remember forever the most horrible tragedy in the history of mankind,” Ashkenazi said [...]

Not pulling punches.. in contrast to President Obama

Ashkenazi went to add that Anti-Semitism and this threat continues to this day alluding to Iran, and that Israel would assert itself in its own defense. He has been fairly clear until now and apparently going forward as well – His is the hawkish view in regards to preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. It is a view which stands in contrast to the Obama administration, which for all intents & purposes seems to have given up on stopping Iran.

Analysis: US making plans for Iran nuke strategy

WASHINGTON – The Obama administration is quietly laying the groundwork for long-range strategy that could be used to contain a nuclear-equipped Iran and deter its leaders from using atomic weapons.

U.S. officials insist they are not resigned to a nuclear Iran and are pressing negotiations to prevent it from joining the world’s nuclear club. But at the same time, the administration has set in place the building blocks of policies to contend with an Iran armed with atomic weapons.

Those elements, former officials and analysts said, include the newly revised defense shield for Europe and deeper defense ties to Gulf states that feel threatened by Iran.

Daylight? Looks more like High-Noon.

The Obama administration may be resigned to apparent surrender on a nuclear Iran, but the Israeli position seems continuously clear. Netanyahu the PM is clear, Barak the Defense Minister is clear, Ashkenazi the top man in uniform is clear.. Together with the heads of Israel’s intelligence these three men will be the arbiters of judgment in regards to Iranian issues.

All options remain on the table.

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Denials abound, but so do the many causal links & leaks..

Signs: Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia align

When Obama’s administration first tabled the ideology behind its mid east peace efforts, a core argument was the driving need to take advantage of what was termed ‘a rare opportunity for consensus’. The argument was that the Iranian rush to nuclear technology which must be stopped, had created a rare spot of common ground for often feuding parties all around the Middle East. I recall Senator Kerry, head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee waxing lyrically about it at the time, and the need to urgently re-examine the Saudi Peace Plan as a result.

A policy of convenient linkage was put forward by the White House quite publically - The peace process was key to solving the Iranian riddle, and as such a massive effort toward Palestinian Israeli engagement was necessary. The Saudi’s weren’t all that interested however, they rejected the notion that forging Palestinian peace was a pre-requisite to stopping Iran. They further quickly doused any talk of concessions to Israel, a key component of Obama’s linkage plan.

Israel also rejected the notion, Netanyahu in fact argued the opposite linkage. The only way to facilitate an eventual peace he said was to remove a main instigator preventing peace, Iran – World’s most prolific sponsor of terror, and patron of the Hezbollah & Hamas radical Islamic terror groups. All three openly sworn to Israel’s destruction.

Thus, in a most backhand manner, it appeared that there was indeed Saudi Israeli consensus. Consensus which was shared with Egypt as well, that Iran must be stopped and more effort toward that goal was needed. The quiet consensus seemingly emerged that America was not being aggressive enough toward that goal. We heard rumblings about it after expansive tours of the Gulf by Sec Def. Gates & Admiral Mullen, the senior US defense officials sent by Obama to brief Gulf leaders.

Signs: The Saudi Strike Path

Not once, but twice now we have heard rumors involving the Saudis spill over into the international press. Rumors regarding possible overflights Israel might employ to cut the distance involved striking the Iranian nuclear weapons programs.  Both rumors linked talks with Israel’s Mossad chief Meir Dagan, and the Sauds possibly turning a blind eye to any Israeli aircraft which might be headed to Iran across the vast Saudi deserts & kingdom.

On both occasions, these rumors were flatly denied by both the Saudis & Israel. Of course, that would be the case whether they were based in reality or not. If anything even in the best case scenario this would be a marriage of convenience, not love or lust that is for certain. But, against the odds another compelling sign has emerged.

Signs: Saudi Largess

The House of Saud is on a military spending binge, a world leading one at that. They are buying up tens of billions of dollars worth of military hardware, a lot of it is advanced US equipment. Israel doth protest, but not all that loudly which suggests a tacit understanding on the international level of sorts that these weapons and systems are not aimed at the holy land. This last point I am arguing may seem somewhat weak in the signs department, but I’ll up the ante and solidify the link by bringing in Russia.

Israel, assisted somewhat by the USA has been vigorously petitioning Russia not to sell Iran advanced Russian S-300 Anti Aircraft missile systems. This has been ongoing for a few years. Escalating to the point where Israel has in its own leaks & rumors threatened that such a weapons system delivery to Iran, could spur an immediate Israeli strike. Clearly, the issue is regarded with the utmost of seriousness as such weapons in Iran could remove a strike option from the table entirely. Thankfully we can suddenly add Russia to the pot of Israeli & Saudi interests seemingly converging.

The Saudi S-400s

When Israel most recently petitioned the Russians (again) about the S-300, the Ruskies were rumored to have replied something along the lines of.. ‘If you don’t want us delivering these S-300s to Iran, why don’t you buy them from us instead?‘

The implication being clear enough. The Iranian contract was lucrative, but the Russians might be prepared to take the billion plus dollars such a sale would ring up for them someplace else. That sticker price however is a bit steep for Israel to absorb, especially since such a system cannot be integrated into Israel’s defenses which are based entirely on Israeli & American design.

Video: Saudis Buying S-400s?

Which brings us oddly enough back to the Saudis. Their systems and the many billions of dollars more they have pledged to purchase are also mostly American designs. Which makes their recent moves to purchase a big S-400 order from Russia quite interesting. Unlike Israel, the Saudis can afford a billion here or there to prevent the delivery of said missiles to Iran. Maybe the offer was to Israel, but in the interests of détente in the face of a common threat - the Saudis have yet again come in to close the deal on keeping the pressure on Iran.

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Yaakov Katz at JPOST has an interesting piece about the 2006 Lebanon war up today. It’s a report on an IDF research article and it comes to some ugly conclusions..

• Israel failed to execute the last war as well as Hezbollah
• Israel needs to prepare for hundreds of 5 man Guerrilla teams infiltrating Israel in coming conflicts
• Hezbollah is armed to the teeth with advanced weapons
• Israel needs to prepare for a possible scenario where it has “No US Ally or Support”

We’ve already seen a waning of our US alliance under Obama, and a crimp on weapons from the US.

What is of particular interest is the guerrilla raiding teams aspect.

One notes that the catalyst for the last war itself was in fact two or three such teams carrying out a similar attack across the northern border against an IDF patrol, with the goal of killing & capturing IDF soldiers. Using the rocketing of Israeli civilians as a diversion, two such teams ambushed IDF humvees on patrol with RPGs and weapons fire, killing at least three soldiers & abducting Goldwasser & Regev – Who themselves were probably either dead or mortally wounded in the ambush.

Other raiding teams were lying in ambush within Lebanon itself, waiting for the IDF Tank response to cross the border in hot pursuit – Directly toward the intricate Hezbollah bunker & mine networks leading to further IDF losses. The result was the full outbreak of war, where Israel faced village after village stocked with these small teams armed up with advanced RPGs & anti-tank weaponry, complete with advanced armor piercing shaped warhead charges.

In 2000, another similar ambush occurred. That time however Hezbollah were wearing UNIFIL / UN uniforms and driving UN vehicles as their diversion & cover. They attacked a smaller IDF patrol destroying their vehicle, and hauled off three IDF soldiers who again were most likely either dead or mortally wounded.

Large scale raids

The prospect of Hezbollah scaling up this strategy is clearly a serious threat, dozens of such teams or even hundreds as mentioned in the article could create havoc in Northern Israel – Even a mini insurgency going on for some time, in a frightening hide & go seek manner relying on local ‘Arab Israeli infrastructure’ & villages for shelter or supplies, while seeking to kill untold numbers of Israeli civilians.

Unlike traditional threats, Israel could not rely on choppers, heavy weaponry or tanks to counter this terrorist rush. They’d have to be engaged by elite combat forces in close quarters. It should also be noted that these teams would not be Hezbollah regulars, but Iranian trained Revolutionary Guards serving Hezbollah as proxy fighters, these are the most heavily armed & best trained fighters terrorism can currently buy.

Hezbollah is in reality an army with the full Iranian weapons arsenal that employs terrorist tactics, this differentiates them somewhat from traditional guerrilla threats like those faced by the US in Iraq or Afghanistan, and represents a serious challenge. Hezbollah’s heavier weapons & longer range rockets require full logistics & abilities beyond any terror group to maintain & launch, light years beyond what any normal insurgency can muster. How do you engage with an army that does not follow any rules of war on any level? Worse, one who’s main goal is the killing of civilians and causing civilian damage / casualties as opposed to engaging in normal warfare.

The Syria Factor

Also of note, comments by Syrian President Bashar Assad to the effect that this is the manner Syria intends to fight Israel going forward. In 2006, Assad & Syrian Ministers hinted that Syria could resort to ‘Armed Resistance’ & Guerrilla Warfare to retrieve the Golan Heights.

Unable to defeat Israel with their conventional forces the Arabs & Iranians have now fully also invested themselves in terrorism & missiles that target civilians, instead of just tanks or planes to fight. It’s not very honorable, but it sure can kill a lot of innocent people.

Serious Challenges

Let’s hope IDF reforms past, present & future are gearing up to counter these realities. Its no small challenge as Israel needs to counter traditional warfare threats from tanks & planes. Missile & rocket threats from tens of thousands of short medium range weapons on multiple fronts. Missile threats from large long range ballistic weapons probably armed with WMD. A full terrorist threat comprising of gunmen & suicide bombers, and now a combination Guerrilla / Terrorist threat armed with conventional advanced army weapons.

SoccerDad provides a stunner of a Link update:

Using his rather impressive encyclopedic knowledge, SD points out to me that he has read something similar to the report being referenced here on Hezbollah previously! - In fact reading the link he sent my mouth kinda opened a bit. Written a decade ago, Israel’s current Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz warned of a nearly identical threat from Israel’s seam line with Judea & Samaria in reference to the Oslo accords, and the arming of PA security forces by Israel.

Reprinted from Commentary Magazine, December, 1999:
WHEN THE PALESTINIAN ARMY INVADES THE HEART OF ISRAEL

Yuval outlines in very specific terms the dangers to critical infrastructure, civilians, the military and the entire state that small groups of Palestinian guerrillas in a mass assault could  inflict. It’s a prophetic & sobering analysis, one which has left me with an entirely new facet of respect for Mr. Steinitz, while equally leaving me scratching my head somewhat as well.

Where were the IDF big thinkers?

Spanning all that time until now? How come these issues have not been addressed seemingly on multiple borders, and why have we seen in many ways now more than a decade of mediocre IDF strategic thinking, culminating in the painful 2006 Lebanon war? Is it merely complacency or something far more troubling.

Israel’s own Lebanon War Winograd Report blasted the IDF for their lack of out of the box strategic thought, compounded by having a Labor Union chief playing Defense Minister & a negligent Prime Minister. We’re going to need a better effort from our political echelon, regional commands & our upper mid level commanders. Hopefully, the mere fact that we are finally seeing the IDF internalizing, thinking & discussing, while simultaneously reporting & researching means the IDF has come to the same conclusion.

Ehud Barak’s sad Lebanese legacy

Equally, I would like very much to point out that the current Defense Minister Ehud Barak, while serving as the Prime Minister around the time Steinitz penned his own analysis above compounded this situation badly. Barak opened up this second northern front by precipitously & delusionally withdrawing from the Lebanon security corridor in the middle of the night. A move which was stunning in its lack of strategic planning or thought on so many levels it left me in tears when I watched it unfold on the news a decade ago.

He did so with no political deal whatsoever to fill the void left by the dismantling of the Phalange (Israel’s Christian Lebanese Militia allies) and withdrawal of IDF forces from Lebanon, let alone a secured peace deal. Without a doubt the single biggest strategic bungle of the last decade by far. We already know the results of that poor strategic thought on the part of Barak – It’s known as South Lebanon, now a mini self enclosed Iranian terror state which manifested itself in less than 5 years. One imagines he took something away from this & other stunning failures like Camp David II, which resulted in the most brutal terror assault Israel has ever seen.

I’m going to stop now, I’m feeling disillusioned & I have so much more to say I could go on forever. You could write a book about the issues in this post but I promised my readers I would hold post lengths and I’ve already doubled this post’s word count.

It’s not my fault, Gerstman found Pandora’s Box!

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I Like My Terrorists Extra Crispy

On the eve of the Jewish day of atonement, judgment overall seems to have come early for these three terrorists preparing to launch rockets from Gaza at Israeli civilians. Stunningly clear IDF UAV video captures them setting up for launch, only to be roasted (literally) by Israeli counter-fire before they can attack with their rockets Saturday.

It’s a testament to the skill, vigilance and frankly unbelievable efforts Israel’s defense forces exhibit keeping us safe day in & out. Gd bless them, and all Am Israel this Yom Kippur.

Gmar Hatima Tova.

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