Pole Position: In Snap Elections, Bibi Would Snap Kadima in Half
Media desperate to sell Livni, but the public is not buying.
The desperation is in the air, you can smell it at Haaretz & Yediot. The left is in crisis, trying to hold on to the dreams of peace deals with a non existent Palestinian partner, and even grander delusions of peace with Syria, a delusion so thick it involves peace negotiations where our peace partners refuse to even meet a Jew face to face – Rich! Polls show over 80% of Israelis opposed to any peace deal ceding the Golan, but that doesn’t stop the media march. Any dream deal with Syria will require a direct referendum of the public, since the Golan has been annexed but these trivial details are of no concern in the Banana Republic Olmert & the media have setup here in Israel.. The opinion spinners know that without Livni, the golden girl of capitulation the farce will end before it even began. Everything rests on poor Livni’s inexperienced shoulders because the numbers for the left’s golden boy Barak, are even worse.. He’s bested in negatives only by Olmert himself who was coasting on a shining 3% approval rate.
Polls don’t tow the media line
[...] Opposition leader and Likud Party Chairman Benjamin Netanyahu is the Israeli public’s preferred choice to replace Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, according to a survey released on Wednesday by Channel 10.
The survey was released shortly after Olmert announced his decision to resign from office as soon as the Kadima party picks a new leader on September 17, and will not run in the upcoming primaries. When those polled were asked to pick between Netanyahu, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, and Defense Minister Ehud Barak for future prime minister, 36 percent said they preferred Netanyahu, as opposed to 24.6 percent who chose Livni. Barak was chosen by 11.9 percent of respondents, significantly less than the fourth choice “none of the above,” which garnered 19 percent.
The far left in Israel is in full collapse mode, Meretz the utlra left party does not even poll at 1% these days, if elections are called they may not even be able to meet knesset threshold. Looking at the Labor party big brother numbers, the pain is obvious. Despite the commando Defense Minister Ehud Barak at the helm, a former PM himself yet - He’s only pulling 11%. The left in Israel is out of play entirely, which explains the desperation for Livni. The last time Barak was given the reigns, he surprised everyone by trying to give away Jerusalem, he was summarily kicked out of office & sent to Siberia for a decade. Livni is now the chief negotiator, she is keeping the big secrets, but when the public finds out what she has put on the table to kiss Condi’s ass, and they will come election time, her weak numbers now will look like the good ole glory days.
Forget the country, Livni is struggling to clinch her party
Poor Livni can’t even stave off Shaul Mofaz in the Kadima internal party polls for leader, Mofaz has now pulled neck in neck with Livni, within two points. Of course the media calls her the favorite, they dare not report how Mofaz has closed the gap like a wild banshee because with Iran looming large, faux peace deals in the works, Livni’s non existent security creds look like stale moldy bread next to a former IDF Chief of Staff, and the General Sharon’s own personal choice for his own Defense Minister. The media would rather everyone forget how Mofaz literally crushed the 2nd intifada, lest Livni’s dangerous games result in yet another aborted ‘peace deal’ and yet another wave of violence when reality comes crashing through the door.
Right is Might for Israel according to the public
Israel’s public knows that Hamastan, Iran, and Livni’s own birthed failure in Lebanon resolution 1701, which handed the keys to Hezbollah are all coming to a head. These events though it is hard to fathom have all come under Olmert & Livni’s short 2.5 year term. She’s been quite a disaster so far, it is the only way to explain how Bibi himself a less than popular Prime Minister is now dragging in nearly 40% in polls. If you add Israel Our Home led by Lieberman which will itself pull 10 seats minimum, and you add a few religious parties you get that missing 19% in the poll above. It’s an onslaught. The chances of Livni forming a coalition should she even survive the Kadima primary are low, she may have to settle for being the agriculture minister again in a broad national emergency government helmed by Bibi, with Mofaz at DM, Barak at the Foreign Ministry and Lieberman perhaps at strategic affairs or finance.
This is of course speculation, but it is not nearly as speculative as the non existent peace deals which will shortly blow up in everyone’s face, and further set the left back another decade.. Just ask Barak how well things turned out the last time a lame duck President of the United States had a State Dept. insistent on faux peace. No matter what amount of lefty media love she gets, it doesn’t look good for Livni, Mofaz & Bibi are going to eat her for breakfast.
Mofaz – I’d opt for a broad coalition (JPOST)
Bibi says Nyet, Sheetrit says coalition without elections nearly impossible, as does Ramon, as does Eitan Cabel party Secretary of Labor, pretty much everyone save Livni, Mofaz, and Kadima Chairman Hasson. Hear that sound? *SNAP*