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Monthly Archives: July 2008

Pole Position: In Snap Elections, Bibi Would Snap Kadima in Half

Media desperate to sell Livni, but the public is not buying.

The desperation is in the air, you can smell it at Haaretz & Yediot. The left is in crisis, trying to hold on to the dreams of peace deals with a non existent Palestinian partner, and even grander delusions of peace with Syria, a delusion so thick it involves peace negotiations where our peace partners refuse to even meet a Jew face to face – Rich! Polls show over 80% of Israelis opposed to any peace deal ceding the Golan, but that doesn’t stop the media march. Any dream deal with Syria will require a direct referendum of the public, since the Golan has been annexed but these trivial details are of no concern in the Banana Republic Olmert & the media have setup here in Israel.. The opinion spinners know that without Livni, the golden girl of capitulation the farce will end before it even began. Everything rests on poor Livni’s inexperienced shoulders because the numbers for the left’s golden boy Barak, are even worse.. He’s bested in negatives only by Olmert himself who was coasting on a shining 3% approval rate.

Polls don’t tow the media line

Haaretz:

[...] Opposition leader and Likud Party Chairman Benjamin Netanyahu is the Israeli public’s preferred choice to replace Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, according to a survey released on Wednesday by Channel 10.

The survey was released shortly after Olmert announced his decision to resign from office as soon as the Kadima party picks a new leader on September 17, and will not run in the upcoming primaries. When those polled were asked to pick between Netanyahu, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, and Defense Minister Ehud Barak for future prime minister, 36 percent said they preferred Netanyahu, as opposed to 24.6 percent who chose Livni. Barak was chosen by 11.9 percent of respondents, significantly less than the fourth choice “none of the above,” which garnered 19 percent.

The far left in Israel is in full collapse mode, Meretz the utlra left party does not even poll at 1% these days, if elections are called they may not even be able to meet knesset threshold. Looking at the Labor party big brother numbers, the pain is obvious. Despite the commando Defense Minister Ehud Barak at the helm, a former PM himself yet - He’s only pulling 11%. The left in Israel is out of play entirely, which explains the desperation for Livni. The last time Barak was given the reigns, he surprised everyone by trying to give away Jerusalem, he was summarily kicked out of office & sent to Siberia for a decade. Livni is now the chief negotiator, she is keeping the big secrets, but when the public finds out what she has put on the table to kiss Condi’s ass, and they will come election time, her weak numbers now will look like the good ole glory days.

Forget the country, Livni is struggling to clinch her party 

Poor Livni can’t even stave off Shaul Mofaz in the Kadima internal party polls for leader, Mofaz has now pulled neck in neck with Livni, within two points. Of course the media calls her the favorite, they dare not report how Mofaz has closed the gap like a wild banshee because with Iran looming large, faux peace deals in the works, Livni’s non existent security creds look like stale moldy bread next to a former IDF Chief of Staff, and the General Sharon’s own personal choice for his own Defense Minister. The media would rather everyone forget how Mofaz literally crushed the 2nd intifada, lest Livni’s dangerous games result in yet another aborted ‘peace deal’ and yet another wave of violence when reality comes crashing through the door.

Right is Might for Israel according to the public

Israel’s public knows that Hamastan, Iran, and Livni’s own birthed failure in Lebanon resolution 1701, which handed the keys to Hezbollah are all coming to a head. These events though it is hard to fathom have all come under Olmert & Livni’s short 2.5 year term. She’s been quite a disaster so far, it is the only way to explain how Bibi himself a less than popular Prime Minister is now dragging in nearly 40% in polls. If you add Israel Our Home led by Lieberman which will itself pull 10 seats minimum, and you add a few religious parties you get that missing 19% in the poll above. It’s an onslaught. The chances of Livni forming a coalition should she even survive the Kadima primary are low, she may have to settle for being the agriculture minister again in a broad national emergency government helmed by Bibi, with Mofaz at DM, Barak at the Foreign Ministry and Lieberman perhaps at strategic affairs or finance.

This is of course speculation, but it is not nearly as speculative as the non existent peace deals which will shortly blow up in everyone’s face, and further set the left back another decade.. Just ask Barak how well things turned out the last time a lame duck President of the United States had a State Dept. insistent on faux peace. No matter what amount of lefty media love she gets, it doesn’t look good for Livni, Mofaz & Bibi are going to eat her for breakfast.

Link Update:
Mofaz – I’d opt for a broad coalition (JPOST)
Bibi says Nyet, Sheetrit says coalition without elections nearly impossible, as does Ramon, as does Eitan Cabel party Secretary of Labor, pretty much everyone save Livni, Mofaz, and Kadima Chairman Hasson. Hear that sound? *SNAP*

Govt Collapse: Olmert Declares Resignation, Knesset in chaos

Day of Reckoning – Billions of Shekels worth of legislation rammed through Knesset in free for all; Olmert leaves seat of Government Knesset chamber mid session, powerless as coalition discipline evaporates; Declares upcoming resignation on Televised Address.

Beset by corruption charges, helming a coalition that has become a sad joke and which is composed of self serving jackals, the day of reckoning has arrived. Our Prime Minister has reclused himself from upcoming primaries in his party this september, and declared his resignation as soon as a new party leader is chosen through that primary system.

Now, in the running for Kadima Foreign Minister Livni, and former Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz. Each will try to seize the leadership of the Kadima party and then the unenviable task of trying to construct a coalition for governing. The likelihood of Livni accomplishing this appears to me slim should she be elected leader of Kadima, as she will be forced to rely on the existing coalition partners and as exhibited today, that partnership is a farce in name only. Insane amounts of social legislation, benefits packages & assorted goodies & gimmes totalling billions were put to votes today in the Knesset despite official coalition positions not in support, what resulted was wide passing of these proposals (some in only initial first reads) and the dissolution of the coalition members from official position, in effect the largest non-confidence vote imaginable.

War & Peace 

Olmert himself declared that these measures / packages were directly threatening Israel’s ability to counter & prepare for national security threats, and chided the coalition for government & fiscal irresponsibility. Livni’s ability to build on this cesspool of a coalition will likely be limited, her ability to lure a new national unity government to counter security threats is also questionable, rival Mofaz whom also seeks to keep Kadima in the helm of government without proceeding to national elections by swinging out of the current coalition which is left center, and instead looking towards the right & religious parties to build a new consensus, stands a slightly better chance in my opinion, but it is frankly hard to imagine how either he Livni or Kadima can avoid going to the polls, its Prime Minister resigning, its coalition in tatters, and the government paralyzed by wildly swinging motions of preparing for war, while conceding for peace, with the impossible cloud of every politician looking out for his own interests and securing his own ass / seat hovering overhead.

Where they stand

Livni & Mofaz are in a near tie for Kadima’s leadership in internal party polling, Mofaz having roared back 20% in the last round of polls. Should either grab the Kadima mantle as explained above, that does not assure them victory. They must then also secure a viable coalition under their new leadership or face national elections. On the national scene the left, and Kadima are in perilous position. Kadima looks set to secure perhaps around 10-14 seats, down from near 30. Ehud Barak, Israel’s current defense minister & Labor party leader looks currently in polling able to secure also around 10 or 12 seats, a disastrous position for Israel’s traditional ruling party. Israel’s main right party the Likud under Bibi Netanyahu, which suffered a terrible defeat in the last election looks primed to regain vast swaths of support, vaulting from around the same area of 10-12 seats to the leading poll position of perhaps 30 or more seats if elections were held today. Combined with a stable showing in polls for the Israel Our Home party led by Avigdor Lieberman, the right appears poised to reclaim to seat of power in Israel, if a viable governing coalition cannot be formed. Should elections be staved off, it appears inevitable that the right will be coalition members in a national emergency government, either way the opposition will be in play going forward in my opinion.

Whatever the case may be, there is a need to come to decisions – Coalition, elections, what have you. Israel needs an effective government and it needs one soon, for a year now the government has been in name only, incapable of making decisions, vacillating and without authority to pursue peace, or defense.

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