State Department probably prefers they stayed at home because if we’ve come, it means war.
The recent NIE heard round the world contains terms like high confidence, but the reaction from the USA’s closest allies can be more easily summed up with the term low confidence. Israel, the UK, France, Germany all have expressed confusion and a fair dose of shock at the wild summaries and loaded manner of the publicly presented portions of the NIE. Experts around the world have grunted in agreement, and even the American public has cast a disbelieving eye, with only 18% of Americans polled actually putting much credence in their latest spy report. It’s not so much the intel itself, but the analysis and loaded manner in which it is presented which has a frankly glaring political tilt.
Theories as to how this has come about have ranged from tying Bush’s hands with rope supplied by what has been an extremely partisan & hostile CIA, one which appears to have been conducting a fair bit of operations against its own administration these past few years through leaks & assorted treachery. Other theories involve an American intel apparatus paralyzed by indecision and doubt over its high profile failures in Iraq and 9/11 previously, and now gun shy to make the tough calls. And the final theory involves an America that has lost its gusto and is looking to deal at our expense.
Some of the reasoning behind all this is the fact that the intel hasn’t changed all that much from the previous NIE in 2005, yet pieces of new intel have swung assessments in a full 180 degree arc. The resulting summaries and framing are shockingly political, with important nuggets buried in footnotes explaining terms used liberally in the document which seem custom made to lead & confuse the casual reader to the golden ticket that Iran is Mr. Clean, while the document clearly states that is not the case by any stretch of the imagination.
Of course all of this is compounded by the even more politically charged media, orgasmic over the chance to grill their own President yet again. The NIE seems custom written for them, allowing them to pick and choose a path through the intel & present even further removed from the data summations declaring Iran Mother Theresa. I’m reminded of hearing David Gregory’s NBC voice sneering in his usual liberal manner about Bush leading America to WWIII and practically accusing the President of lying behind his intel at recent press briefings, to say nothing of the moron Olberman and his made for moonbat TV ‘exposes’ where he basically elevates treason to a camera cutting art of ridiculousness, complete with fabricated rage and infused with calling his President a liar repeatedly per segment on national TV.
What the hell is going on in America!?
Here in Israel we know that when ESPN sportscasters start feeling comfortable faux determining national policy based on their acting skills in desperate made for TV ratings grabs, while Iran builds missiles and spins centrifuges marked ‘for Tel-aviv’ on them it’s time to act. Last week there was blurb about it in Haaretz, and now YNET has some details as well. But the general gist is that our intel & boys have flown to the great USA to present the Mossad’s reading of events in Iran. It would appear we are making one last effort to wake the USA up before we ditch the current form of our own government & implement either elections or a walking talking national security platform emergency government - In order to prepare for war in 2009.
Our own National Security Assessment is that the US has abandoned Israel to tackle Iran alone. (YNET)
The aforementioned pessimism concerns Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The American National Intelligence Estimate “dropped quite a bomb” on Israel’s struggle against Iran’s nuclear program, said officials within Israel’s defense establishment. The US report only diminishes the likelihood that the international community will impose harsh, effective sanctions on Iran and also that the US itself will strike Iranian nuclear facilities.
“It is clear to us now that no one will do the work for us,” one of the report’s authors told Ynet, Israel can now rely solely on its own military capabilities, if and when the Iranian nuclear program achieves its aims. [...]
That pretty much sums it up. The levers of power may have been pulled in America to prevent military conflict with Iran, but the reverse effect has resulted. Now instead of an international concerted effort to prevent it, thanks to partisan games that has unraveled totally & now America will be going to war whether it likes it or not.
Once we initiate and we will having been forced into the corner, take that to the bank - America will have little choice because the only thing the Jihad likes as much as Jewish blood, is American blood. I pray for safety in the US that Barack Obama is not your next President, because if he is, his weakness and total inexperience will make the errors in Iraq look like training exercises imho. Sarkozy warned about it this week, Iran is no longer the wild card.. We in Israel are.
It is about to get played.
Link Update: Olmert knows it too, it’s freaking him out and he’s still in denial, desperate to salvage failed policies.
FNC Update – Fox News mentioned the split in Israel, with Olmert chastising our Security Minister Avi Dichter over his comments about military conflict, but frankly at a certain point this all becomes redundant. Olmert hanging on won’t change the reality that most security & military officials, and now many cabinet members have all resigned themselves to the reality that Israel needs to get in gear & pronto.