Comments on: Strategic Picture: Lebanon Under Fire (Comprehensive Analyses I)

By: Increasinglyhole

Increasinglyhole — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 22:46:06 +0000

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By: Carol Herman

Carol Herman — Sat, 19 Aug 2006 05:55:10 +0000

The UN had other goals! It saw Condi. And, she got drawn in over her head. She actually thought #1701 was legitimate paper. She was handed counterfeits. ANd, she made change with real money. Too bad for her. But why would the french do this? Terrible anger at Bush. And, a thinking that the MSM could wipe Bush off the map, by making Condi look like a rube. For Condi? Like Olmert. Washed up political careers. But for different reasons. And, in different time slots. Condi, I'm sure, was hopeful that in 2008 she'd be the Veep. No longer bankable. (That's what happens when you blow your capital in a french casino.) And, the french don't care. The current song is that Malaysia will supply the UN troops. You'll notice how the muslim countries are looking to bear arms against Israel. That Malaysia doesn't recognize Israel's right to exist? What's the problem? Lebanon. She wouldn't have these problems if she didn't suffer from the same disease that got the french all wrapped up with the germans. Just more Vichy French here, to go around. Do the think they'll lose? No. Can they make a dent in the Internet traffic between a strong majority of AMericans? NO. But that hasn't stopped the train coming down these tracks. While, yes. Olmert was "diplomatically" encouraged. But Livni? She doesn't speak english. And, at the last 48 ours, Olmert had to pull her and send Shimon Peres to the UN, instead. When the tables turn, they'll fall on Peres, who is not liked. They'll fall on Halutz. Who did something CRIMINAL, called INSIDER TRADING. And, Haim Ramon. Standing at the side, goes to party on July 12th, and sticks his tongue down an employee's throat. Sometimes, bad things happen because the Gods are laughing. I also noticed that Bibi turned Dahlia Itzik down. So the "secret" meeting gets printed. And, Itzik worried about her own job survival. Don't you think she should be? How can Amir Peretz or Olmert head any ticket that gets put up in the next election? I'm sure behind the scenes there are hopes that scoundrels and extortionists, also known as kneset members, figure out out to fix the political machinery they broke. They can't blame this on the settlers, ya know?

By: M. Simon

M. Simon — Sat, 19 Aug 2006 03:53:27 +0000

This is a trackback. http://powerandcontrol.blogspot.com/2006/08/aftermath.html 

By: Vie de Malchance

Vie de Malchance — Sat, 19 Aug 2006 03:44:11 +0000

[...] If you’re up for more reading on the subject, check out The Hashmonean’s comprehensive analyses of the Second Lebanon War. [...]

By: saus

saus — Fri, 18 Aug 2006 18:08:28 +0000

I lost about 4 or 5 comments which is really too bad because they were good, if your comment didn't show pls consider re-posting it.

I did get a chance to read one from WestBankMama, who commented on the numbers of Hezbollah fighters, as she has seen estimates of between 2000-8000 Hezbolah fighters. I think she is entirely correct.
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For my purposes I was limiting to the core group of highly trained Hezbollah trained fully in Iran, these are from what is believed similar to full Iranian Revolutionary Guard special forces or commandos.

I think Hezbollah can field that 8000, but after you pass the core group they really from my understanding become just men running around with guns, not very trained at all & similar to many of the 'bulk fighters' in the territories. Those types of fighters are normally fodder, the IDF can often see 50 to 1 ratios in engagement (without exaggerating) in those circumstances in the territories.

They wouldn't be proficient with advanced weapons (anti-tank & rpg), have the advanced equipment we've seen like nightvision, or likely be found in the intricate bunker / defense system Hezbollah established on the border. I think the IDF would cut through them badly and many of those 'civilian casualties' it is my own belief were made up of these sorts of non trained fighters killed in the aerial campaign!

By: saus

saus — Fri, 18 Aug 2006 07:29:04 +0000

Hi Goesh & Gus,

The single issue I might with the general points made is the concept of the knockdown mentioned in Goesh's post. Hezbollah never really faced the IDF in the conflict on the ground in any numbers save for a small period in the buffer zone clearing.. Which was carried out with fairly heavy losses for the proxy.

That push was made up of about 7k troops including the full support and artillery. Goesh you would know how much that leaves in actual combat troops, not as many as one might hope.

If they had faced the full deployed in Israel 35k for a week to 10 days what might we have seen in that expanded 20km zone, I think the hezbollah would have experienced real brutality.

The IDF can field 150+k standing, and about 500K in full reserves in an emergency, we need to keep some perspective on these things I think.

as far as resolve, clearly we are all dismayed by the Israeli leadership and to a lesser extent the lack gungho in the USA on these matters of facing off more directly and taking off the gloves with Iran's proxy. If it indeed came to that Gus for Israel, such a blow would be particularly difficult in a small country like Israel.