Monthly Archives: August 2006

Arming Hezbollah

Kofi Annan keeps slamming Israel (business as usual), saying it is in breach of resolution 1701 – as if there is a resoluton 1701. Has anyone seen or heard a word out of the UN to Hezbollah or the Lebanese government? I guess this is what happens when you deal with terrorists, the UN turns a blind eye.

The UN under the agreement is supposed to provide a buffer force to assist in disarming Hezbollah, is supposed to be enforcing an arms embargo within Lebanon preventing ANY arms or weapons not authorized for the Lebanese government. Non of that has happened, instead there is endless talk of weapons & re-arming.. Meanwhile the French have all but disappeared, their whining & cajoling is what screwed up the resolution in the first place, we should have known the French would opt for surrender.

Kofi is on the case 

The Iranians are openly talking about shipping weapons, setting up staging grounds within Syria where weapons are being stored for shipment to Hezbollah. (YNET)

This past week a number of cargo planes originating from Iran passing through Turkey to Syria were forcibly searched, some turned after US pressure and surveillance pointed to missiles & rockets aboard.. (Debka)

The UN's big plan is looking very much like every other instance of UN involvement in Middle East affairs, a total shaft for Israel. In the mean time Israel is itself looking fairly paralyzed, mostly by internal political & military issues. More on that in a large post - the 3rd part of a series on the Lebanon conflict as soon as it is finished.

Strategic Picture: Lebanon Under Fire (Comprehensive Analyses II)

Part I – Strategic Picture: Lebanon Under Fire (I) 

I'm building on these posts and not repeating, so please consider reading them in sequence.

Winning the War

Defining victory, and the media

How does one measure victory in War? Is it total surrender, or perhaps one measures it in who paid the greatest cost, is it measured in territory or KMs conquered? Perhaps the diplomacy itself after the fighting has entirely ceased determines the victor.. Maybe it involves all of the above, or none but clearly such questions are complex.

If we look at wars, and there are literally well over a hundred a year on this planet (though you would never know) you will find that very few result in total surrender, many do not involve movement of even a single km in fighting forces, many have little to no casualties, and some show terrible – almost unquantifiable by the mind losses in human life. The lesson that we can glean from this is that there is NO 'Fox Around the World in 80 Seconds' answer to such a question, irrespective of which war we choose to discuss. (To be clear, that is not a shot at Fox, but media in general covering this conflict.)

One thing is also clear, I have never before seen anyone venture forth that 'not being totally annihilated from the face of the earth' is a claim for victory; it might be if you are a perennial loser. But where does such a fallacy come from? In this case it came from the media, which was fed from the Arab World (perennial losers) and then it snowballed like these things too often do.

Media carried this, spun this fallacy and like most things in media told often enough; even the most absurd nonsense becomes a form of reality for people seeking a 60 second answer to complex questions. In this fallacy the concept of having someone launch $250 dollars worth of fireworks is a testament to victory! Look, they have fireworks.. Surely they must have won. I see a very different picture, and will try to pull in what was missing in the media to give a more complete strategic picture.

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Strategic Picture: Lebanon Under Fire (Comprehensive Analyses I)

Doing Analysis of the Middle East

I wasn't going to do a full analysis wrap up of the situation in Lebanon & the wider Middle East, frankly the war is not over and what we are in is a wobbly cease fire. It is far too early for this strategic wrap up but others are going for it and my own analysis is very different. 

It is no wonder there are so many opinions (including mistaken ones at that) when it comes to the Middle East. This is a different place, it is not Kansas, or London and a very different rule set applies. Unless you understand the area, the Arab mentality, some Islamic history, and just as importantly Israel itself (which is radically different than Arabs States in the region) you will often draw blanks through no fault of your own trying to understand the region. This is not a shot at anyone, but a reflection of the reality that the talking heads in theatre for networks, and the guest speakers etc what have you are often off base. Listening to them put up opinion vs counter-opinion can make your head explode.

Analyzing this situation without understanding Lebanon & Israel's complicated history will immediately cause flaws from the get go in my own opinion. Studying Lebanon itself could lead to a full blown doctorate, that is how complicated a place it is. In a 4 part post, I hope to pull in the many missing factors shaping up in the Main Stream Media who are trying to get a head or tails of the situation.

Lebanon's Troubled History

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BBC Busted: Orla Guerin caught lying on TV

She won awards at the BBC, indeed in the twisted world of the boobheads she's some sort of folk hero but we all know better..

Her propaganda operation for the BBC? BUSTED! – Courtesy of Drinking From Home

In living colour, with screenshots documentation, text and jolly good spirit to boot! (H/T LGF)

Drinking From Home hits one out the park! Exposing Guerin & the BBC for the journalistic Hezbollah shills they are, possessed by a deep seated hatred for Israel, manufacturing blatant Arab & Muslim sympathy, or 'context' as they call it.

You're giving the great Brits a bad name. I don't curse here very often, but in this case allow me to be the first to congratulate you Guerin, you & the Beeb just got bitch slapped – but good..

I'm going to take my pants off now and do a little dance in my underwear, that's how happy I am about that!

BBC credibility is not going down the loo, it is at zero and flat lining..

Search for BBC & Bias here at the Hash..

[tags]BBC, Bias, Israel, Hezbollah[/tags]

Peretz & Olmert: You boys should be keeping a low profile

Not meaning any disrespect, but right now this is not what Amir Peretz should be caught doing..

Foot & Mouth disease

(JPOST) The conflict with Hizbullah may have created a new opportunity for renewed dialogue with the Palestinians, and potentially also with Syria, Defense Minister Amir Peretz said Tuesday afternoon.

Speaking at a bar mitzva party, Peretz said that he believes every war generates the possibility to further the greater diplomatic process, and that in this case that could mean conducting negotiations with Lebanon and creating the conditions for negotiations with Syria.

In response to this statement, Israel Beiteinu head Avigdor Lieberman said that Peretz was suffering from a failure to acknowledge reality. "It is just this kind of obliviousness to reality that brought the country to the present conflict," Lieberman said.

"After Assad announced that the Golan Heights would be liberated by Syrian soldiers and that Hizbullah won the conflict, Peretz's call for negotiations with Syria will be received as a weakness and an invitation for another attack," he said. "It is preferable that the defense minister focus on preparing the army for the next unavoidable conflict rather than unrealistic wishful thinking."  Lieberman was referring to statements made earlier Tuesday by Syrian President Bashar Assad. Assad said in a speech that America's plan for a "new Middle East" had collapsed after Hizbullah's successes in fighting against Israel.

Now is the time to focus on Israel, security and completing the campaign. Soldiers remain in enemy hands, soldiers remain in enemy lands. These two leaders can't possibly do any more damage to their image right now, or can they? Put a lid on it Amir before Israel puts a lid on you I'd say.. Peretz does not seem to understand that Bashar just finished boasting of a 'fictional' victory, and such talk out of Israel is misinterpreted by many foolish people as a concession.

Sure Amir is just excited because he always wants dialogue with just about anybody, but now give Israel's public some peace and quiet before the next storm rages.. There's a front still open in Gaza Mr. Defense Minister (We need to remind him of this?) a front still open in Lebanon, and a gaping new front opening in the political sphere within Israel.

Can someone hire this guy an adviser!?

UPDATE: While on the topic of the front, where is Hezbollah?

Israel has now invaded Lebanon according to Nasrallah and the cockroaches, this would normally mean a fight to the death according to Hezbollah ideology and boasts.. Unless of course most of them are already dead or now live in mortal fear of it - having seen the IDF up close for the 1st time in 25 years. Is this a small calm, a preparation to counter-attack.. Or will the Hezbollah need literally years to regain its strength? The blow by Israel is perhaps greater than what is seen in the media (at least I think so).

Israel clearly prefers to let the diplomacy roll with a willingness to fight as required, but Hezbollah's boasts, ideologies etc leave little room for this, where is the new leader / 'hero' of the Arab world seen on Al Jazeera and his mighty army.. Buried perhaps by the reality of the rubble all around them, previously known as the 'Hezbollah state within a state?' We'll be watching Hassan.