Israel at the Polls – Tough slog for the coalition
From my favorite show at Channel 1 – Israel, Politica:
The most recent polls on the Israel / PA security situation.
Frame of reference: Taken just before the 1st Kassam hit in Ashkelon yesterday, and poller's comments to the effect that the Israeli public is ancy. These numbers do not reflect the apparent stronger winds blowing today from the Israeli Security Cabinet. (Translations below from the native Hebrew)
Q: Do you feel secure / have confidence in the current coalition strategy regarding the Palestinian situation?
- 40% – No confidence.
- 27% – Confident
- 25% – So So, or wavering.
- 8% – No opinion
Q: What level of confidence do you hold in regards to PM Olmert's ability to handle / lead on the Palestinian issue?
- 38% – No confidence
- 28% – Confident
- 25% – So So..
- 9% – No opinion
Q: What level of confidence do you hold in regards to Defense Minister Peretz's ability to handle / lead on the Palestinian issue?
- 54% – No confidence
- 23% – So so, wavering..
- 15% – Confident
- 8% – No opinion
My own analysis of the numbers:
There's no desire to be harsh in regards to Israel's govt. currently, most especially at a time of duress as it is in. But the overall numbers and feelings are fairly stark no matter how much spin I'd toss this one with. The coalition has swung too far left for the public's gumption of a center party / coalition thus far. The Olmert plans need re-tooling, and the tough statements need to be backed up with effect from both leaders (Kadima / Labor). There's no political mysteries in a society famously lacking patience like Israel, you can't just talk the talk, you need to also walk the walk.
This result reflects a natural pessimistic mood in light of the circumstances, and it can be turned around quickly and decisively, most especially in this pivotal time. It can also lead to a no confidence motion after the crisis has passed. Of note, the confidence ie. support numbers are very much near / in line with overall Labor party voting numbers in Israel, Kadima such a young party has got little base right now, meaning the center and center right voters that make up the new party do not appear to me in the + numbers of these polls. It's time for Olmert's inner circle to get cracking.
I'll leave it at that for now, it isn't the time to play politics – however it is always a very good time to tune into Politica! – It's a great show.